Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Forecast Ten Top Canada MoPay Dog Stocks To Net 16.3% to 67.7% Gains To August, 2018
Note that two of the ten top net gain MoPay dogs (shaded in the chart above) were verified as being among the Top ten yielders for the coming year. Thus the dog strategy for this “Safer”Canadian Dividend MoPay group, as graded by analyst estimates for August, proved 20% accurate.
Ten likely profit-generating trades were illustrated by YCharts analytics for 2018:
High Arctic Energy Services (HWO.TO) [OTC:HGHAF] netted $676.61 based on mean target price estimates from six analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 100% more than to the market as a whole.
Tahoe Resources (THO.TO) [TAHO] netted $630.06 based on dividends plus median target price estimate from fourteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 118% more than the market as a whole.
Crius Energy (KWH.UN.TO ) [OTC:CRIUF] netted $290.64 based on a target estimate from four analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 31% less than the market as a whole.
Inter Pipeline (IPL.TO) [OTCPK:IPPLF] netted $272.06 based on dividends plus the median of annual price estimates from thirteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 19% less than the market as a whole.
Plaza Retail (PLZ.UN.TO ) netted $115.59, based on dividends plus a median target estimate from seven analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 62% less than the market as a whole.
Keg Royalties Income Fund (KEG.UN.TO) [KRIUF] netted $242.68 based on the median of target estimates from four analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 86% more than the market as a whole.
Nexus Real Estate Investment Trust (NXR.UN.V) [OTC:EFRTF] netted $241.08 based on a mean target price estimate from two analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 40% less than the market as a whole.
Agellan Commercial REIT (ACR.UN.TO) [ACRVF] netted $212.46 based on target price estimates from five analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 59% less than the market as a whole.
Smart Real Estate (SRU.UN.TO) [CWYUF] netted $163.92 based on target estimates from nine analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. No Beta number was available for SRU.UN.TO
Pizza Pizza Royalty (PZA.TO) [OTC:PZRIF] netted $162.58, based on target price estimates from one analyst, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 16% less than the market as a whole.
Average net gain in dividend and price was 31.35% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten Canadian MoPay dog stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 9% more than the market as a whole.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
The “dog” moniker was earned by stocks exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest dividend yielding stocks in any collection became known as “dogs.” More precisely, these are, in fact, best termed, “underdogs”.
41 of 96 August All-Cap Canadian MoPay Dividend Dogs Show Positive Returns And Cash Flow Yields Greater Than Their Dividend Yields
Periodic Safety Inspection
A previous article discussed the raw list of 96 all-cap MoPay stocks from which the ‘safe’ dividend 41 were sorted. You see below the those that passed the dividend “stress” test. These all-cap Canadian monthly pay dividend dogs report positive returns and sufficient annual cash flow yield to cover their anticipated annual dividend yield. The margin of excess is shown in the bold face column labeled “SafeMargin”.
Financial guarantees. however, are frequently reset by corporate boards of directors managing company policies cancelling or varying the payout of dividends to shareholders. This article asserts that adequate cash flow is a strong justification for a company to sustain annual dividend increases.
Eight Business Sectors Contained “Safer” Canadian Equities Paying Monthly Dividends In August
Eight of eleven Morningstar sectors were represented by the forty-one equities projecting ‘safer’ August dividends. The representation broke out as follows: financial services (8); real estate (14); healthcare (1); Utilities (2); consumer cyclical (7); energy (6); Basic Materials (1); Industrials (2); Communication Services (0); Consumer Defensive (0); Technology (0). The first five sectors named on the list above were represented by the top ten “safer” dogs by yield.
Dog Metrics Found Miniscule August Bargain MoPay “Safer” Dividend Stocks
Ten “Safe” top All-Cap Canada MoPay dividend stocks per July 28 YCharts data were ranked by yield as follows:
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated (11) 5 Lowest Priced of Ten Monthly Pay Canadian Dividend Dogs Would Deliver 12% VS. (12) 11.96% Net Gains from All Ten By August, 2018
$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest priced stocks in the “safe” ten Canadian MoPay kennel by yield were determined by analyst 1 year targets to deliver 0.3% more net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The sixth lowest priced “safe “MoPay dog, Crius Energy (KWH.UN.TO) [CRIUF], was projected to deliver the best net gain of 20.06%.
Lowest priced five “safer” dividend MoPay dogs as of July 28 were: Nexus Real Estate Investment Trust (NXR.UN.V); BTB REIT (BTB.UN.TO)[OTC:BTBIF]; True North Commercial (TNT.UN.TO); Dividend Select 15 (DS.TO ); Manulife Floating Rate. (MFR.UN.TO), with prices ranging from $2.03 to $8.71.
Higher priced five “safe” Canadian all-cap MoPay dogs for May 25 were: CriusEnergy (KWH.UN.TO) [CRIUF]; Brompton Split Banc (SBC.TO) [OTC:NWHUF]; Medical Facilities (DR.TO) [MSCSF]; Artis REIT (AX.UN.TO) [OTCPK:ARESF]; Northview Apartment REIT (NVU.UN.TO) [OTC:NPRUF], whose prices ranged from $9.91 to $20.78.
This distinction between five low priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflects the “basic method” Michael B. O’Higgins employed for beating the Dow. The added scale of projected gains based on analyst targets contributed a unique element of “market sentiment” gauging upside potential. It provided a here and now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Its also the work analysts got paid big bucks to do.
Caution is advised, however, as analysts are historically 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and about 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of the change.
The net gain estimates mentioned above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of “dividends” from any investment.
See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. –Fredrik Arnold
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible starting points for your safest MoPay dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.
One of these monthly paying Canadian dividend pups qualifies as a valuable catch! Find it among the now 52 Dogs of the Week (DOTW)I plus 50 DOTWII found on The Dividend Dog Catcher premium site. Click here to subscribe or get more information.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.ycharts. com; www.finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance. Dog photo from: newfoundlanddogs.ca
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Editor’s Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.