As was noted by the folks at Asia Stocks to Watch earlier today, economic data from China, South Korea and Singapore and a central bank rate decision in Thailand are all on tap for this week.
But there is other news on the docket this week in other emerging markets, including a central bank meeting in Colombia, economic data from Chile, trade data from Turkey and budget data from Brazil and South Africa.
Brown Brothers Harriman currency strategists note:
Brazil reports August current account and FDI data Tuesday. It reports central government budget data Thursday. This will be followed by consolidated budget data Friday. Brazil reported much stronger than expected tax revenues for August. This warns of positive surprises in the budget data.
South Africa reports August money and private sector credit, trade, and budget data Friday. SARB surprised markets with steady rates last week, despite a dovish statement. The next meeting November 23 could be problematic, as it comes a day before S&P and Moody’s are due to issue ratings decisions.
Turkey reports August trade Friday, which is expected at -$5.9 bln. If so, the 12-month total would rise to -$64 bln from -$62.9 bln in July, and would be the highest since November 2015. The external accounts have been worsening in recent months, due mostly to stronger imports.
Chile reports August IP Friday. The economy is picking up, which supports the central bank’s view that the easing cycle is over. CPI rose 1.9% y/y, below the 2-4% target range, which gives the bank to leave rates steady for the time being.
Colombia central bank meets Friday and is expected to keep rates steady at 5.25%. Inflation was 3.9% y/y in August, still in the 2-4% target range but up from 3.4% in July. We’re not convinced the easing cycle is over, and warn that there are risks of a dovish surprise then.
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is down 1.5% today.