Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Advise 3.9% To 31.53% Net Gains From Top Ten Consumer Defensive Dogs By September 2018
Eight of ten top dividend-yielding Consumer Defensive dogs were verified as being among the top ten of thirty gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (As tinted in the chart above). So, the yield-based forecast for the Consumer Defensive dogs was graded by those Wall St. wizards as 80% accurate this month.
Ten probable profit-generating trades were revealed in YCharts for September 2018:
B&G Foods (BGS) was projected to net $315.34, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from ten analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 89% less than the market as a whole.
Altria Group (MO) was projected to net $174.15, based on dividends, plus a median target price estimate from fifteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed 37% less volatility than the market as a whole.
Marine Harvest (OTCPK:MHGVY) netted $63.75 based on dividends alone, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 61% less than the market as a whole.
Svenska Cellulosa (OTCPK:SVCBY) was projected to net $60.31, based on no mean target price estimates, just the projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 38% less than the market as a whole.
Svenska Cellulosa (OTCPK:SVCBF) was projected to net $58.79, based on no mean target price estimates, just the projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 87% less than the market as a whole.
Vector Group (VGR) was projected to net $55.85 based only on dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 61% less than the market as a whole.
Target (TGT) was projected to net $47.72, based on target price estimates from twenty-six analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 40% less than the market as a whole.
Koninklijke Ahold (OTCQX:ADRNY) was projected to net $47.18, based only on dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 24% less than the market as a whole.
Casino Guichard-Perrachon (OTCPK:CGUSY) was projected to net $39.52, based on dividends only, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 68% more than the market as a whole.
Coca-Cola Amatil (OTCPK:CCLAF) was projected to net $39,20, based only on dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 24% more than the market as a whole.
An average net gain in dividend and price was calculated at 9% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 33% more than the market as a whole.
Top 50 Consumer Defensive Dogs By Yield Represented 11 of 13 Sector Industries For September
Yield (dividend / price) results from YCharts September 21 verified by YahooFinance for fifty stocks 11 of 13 sector Industries produced the actionable conclusions in this article.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the “dog” moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as “dogs.” More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, “underdogs”.
Top 50 September Consumer Defensive Sector Dogs By Yield
Actionable Conclusions (11-20) Dog Metrics Identified 10 Top Dividend Consumer Defensive Stocks By Yield
Top ten Consumer Defensive dogs selected 9/21/17 showing top yields represented seven of thirteen constituent industries.
Top yielding Consumer Defensive stock was the lone farm products provider, Marine Harvest (OTCPK:MHGVY) .
In second and third were Svenska Cellulosa (OTCPK:SVCBY)  & (OTCPK:SVCBF) , the two household & personal products representatives.
The tobacco representative placed fourth, Vector Group (VGR) , while three grocery stores industry representative firms placed fifth, seventh and ninth, Koninklijke Ahold (ARDNY) , Casino Guichard-Perrachon (OTCPK:CGUSY) , and Wesfarmers (OTCPK:WFAFF) .
In sixth place was the single Packaged Foods representative, B&G Foods (BGS) .
In eighth place, a lone beverages-soft drinks concern resided, Coca-Cola Amatil (OTCPK:CCLAF) .
Finally, one education & training services firms placed tenth, Navitas (OTCPK:NVTZF)  to complete the top ten September Consumer Defensive dogs by yield. .
Just six more industries constitute the sector: (1) beverages-brewers; (2) beverages – wineries & distilleries; (3) confectioners; (4) discount stores; (5) food distribution; (6) pharmaceutical retailers.
Actionable Conclusions: (21-23) Three Consumer Defensive Dogs Were Estimated To Make 2.5% To 27.3% Upsides To September 21, 2018
To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a “market sentiment” gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield “dog” metrics, analyst mean price target estimates provided another tool to dig out bargains.
Actionable Conclusions: Wall St. Wizards Estimated (24) A 1.5% Median Target Price Upside and (25) 6% Net Gain From 30 Consumer Defensive Upside Dogs By September 2018
Consumer Defensive top thirty stocks were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of September 21, 2017, and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2018.
A hypothetical $1,000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter, the analyst mean target price gauged the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends, less broker fees, as of 2018.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those ten stocks created data points for 2017. Projections based on estimated dividend amounts from $1,000 invested in the ten stocks and aggregate 1-year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance created the 2018 data points green for price and blue for dividend.
YChart analysts’ median 1-year targets projected a 1.3% lower dividend from $10k invested as $1k in ten dogs in this group while aggregate single share price for those ten was projected to increase by 3.4% in the coming year. Notice, price lower than dividend on the chart in the coming year means no overbought condition is on-tap for the Consumer Defensive top yield dogs.
The number of analysts contributing to the target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were generally not applied (n/a).
A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column of the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock’s price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock’s movement opposite of market direction.
Analysts Forecast A 37.75% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Consumer Defensive Stocks To September, 2018
Ten top Consumer Defensive dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend / price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.
As noted above, top ten Consumer Defensive dogs selected 9/21/17 showing the highest dividend yields represented seven of thirteen industries constituting the Consumer Defensive sector.
Actionable Conclusions: (26) Analysts Predicted 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield Consumer Cyclical Dogs Delivering 4.71% Vs. (27) 7.56% Net Gains by All Ten by September, 2018
$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Dividend Consumer Defensive kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 37.75% LESS net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all of those ten. The highest priced Consumer Defensive top yield dog, B&G Foods (BGS), was projected to deliver the best net gain of 31.53%.
The five lowest-priced Consumer Defensive top yield dogs for September 21 were: Navitas (OTCPK:NVTZF); Coca-Cola Amatil (OTCPK:CCLAF); Svenska Cellulosa (OTCPK:SVCBY) & (OTCPK:SVCBF); Casino Guichard-Perrachon (OTCPK:CGUSY), with prices ranging from $3.58 to $11.41.
Five higher-priced Consumer Defensive dogs for September 21 were: Wesfarmers (OTCPK:WFAFF); Koninklijke Ahold (OTCQX:ADRNY); Marine Harvest (OTCPK:MHGVY); Vector Group (VGR); B&G Foods (BGS), whose prices ranged from $16.13 to $31.53.
That distinction between the five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O’Higgins’ “basic method” for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of “market sentiment” gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.
See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. –Fredrik Arnold
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of “dividends” from any investment.
Three of these top 50 Consumer Defensive pups by yield qualify as a valuable catches! Find them among the now 52 Dogs of the Week I found on The Dividend Dog Catcher premium site, or the 52 Dogs of the Week II that are now accumulating returns. Also, a Safari to Success (Dogs of the Week III) launched in early September. Click here to subscribe or get more information.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo: myglobalpetfoods.wordpress.com
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in MHGVY over the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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