CHICAGO (Xinhua) – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) grains futures closed lower over the trade week which ended July 28, as old crop supplies stay abundant and dry weather affects grains growth.
CBOT corn futures ended the week slightly lower and the traders will be cautious about establishing any large new positions ahead of the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) August report.
US corn export sales will remain lackluster through late autumn as South American corn is historically cheap and abundant, and as old crop global corn stocks still may be understated by 2-4 million tonnes.
Any CBOT rally is based on a further loss of US corn supply. Analysts said fair value is pegged between 3.60-4.20 US dollars per bushel for corn futures.
They hold that the downside price risk has been curtailed and December corn is no longer expected to fall below 3.60 dollars during the throes of harvest.
Wheat futures ended lower in the week, but found some measure of support on Friday.
Like corn, old crop supplies remain abundant while major changes to the new crop world and major exporter balance sheets lie ahead.
National Agricultural Statistics Service is fully expected to lower spring wheat yield further and modestly hike abandonment.
Canada’s wheat crop is trending closer to 24-25 million tonnes, vs the USDA’s 28 million, and harvest losses are likely in northern Europe as a pattern of above normal rainfall will continue there into the middle of August.
Weather market volatility kept soybeans on the move through the week and had November beans nearly 28 cents over the lows at Friday’s close.
A wet weather forecast on Tuesday put in the week’s low, while limited rains and a drier weather outlook supported prices into the end of the week.
Old crop US soybean exports are picking up and offering support for soybean basis, while limited rains across large portions of the western Midwest and northern Plains is whittling away at the new crop supply.