Actionable Conclusion (1-10): Analysts Advise 4.9% To 46.45% Net GainsFrom Top Ten Consumer Defensive Dogs By August 2018
Six of ten top dividend-yielding Consumer Defensive dogs were verified as being among the top ten of thirty gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (As tinted in the chart above). So, the yield-based forecast for the Consumer Defensive dogs was graded by those Wall St. wizards as 60% accurate.
Ten probable profit-generating trades were revealed in YCharts for July/August 2018:
Brasilagro – Cia Bras (LND) was projected to net $464.51, based on dividends, plus one mean target price estimate from a single analyst, less broker fees. The Beta number showed 21% more volatility than the market as a whole.
Vector Group (VGR) was projected to net $398.65 based on a target price estimate from one analyst plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 57% less than the market as a whole. [Note: Based on past-year performance in dividend dogcatcher portfolio marketplace research, VGR will not be able to earn the increased one-year price to fulfill the expectation of this one bold analyst.]
B&G Foods (BGS) was projected to net $248.54, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from ten analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 91% less than the market as a whole.
North West [NWTUF] (NWC.TO) netted $125.96 based on dividends alone, plus a median target estimate from two analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 89% less than the market as a whole.
Flowers Foods (FLO) was projected to net $105.86, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 3% less than the market as a whole.
Svenska Cellulosa (OTCPK:SVCBF) was projected to net $64.58, based on no mean target price estimates, just the projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 85% less than the market as a whole.
Svenska Cellulosa (OTCPK:SVCBY) was projected to net $60.97, based on no mean target price estimates, just the projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 38% less than the market as a whole.
Estacio Participacoes (OTCQX:ECPCY) was projected to net $56.63, based on dividends only, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 138% more than the market as a whole.
Wesfarmers (OTCPK:WFAFF) was projected to net $52.88, based only on dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 3% more than the market as a whole.
Target (TGT) was projected to net $49.94, based on target price estimates from twenty-six analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 40% less than the market as a whole.
An average net gain in dividend and price was calculated at 16.28% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 54% more than the market as a whole.
Top 50 Consumer Defensive Dogs By Yield Covered 11 of 13 Sector Industries For July/August
Yield (dividend / price) results from YCharts August 1 verified by Yahoo Finance for fifty stocks from 11 of 13 sector Industries produced the actionable conclusions in this article.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the “dog” moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as “dogs.” More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, “underdogs”.
Top 50 July/August Consumer Defensive Sector Dogs By Yield
Actionable Conclusions (11-20) Dog Metrics Recovered 10 Top Dividend Consumer Defensive Stocks By Yield
Top ten Consumer Defensive dogs selected 8/1/17 showing top yields represented six of thirteen constituent industries.
Top two yielding Consumer Defensive stocks, Svenska Cellulosa (OTCPK:SVCBF) , & (OTCPK:SVCBY)  were the two household & personal products representatives.
A tobacco representative placed third, Vector Group (VGR) , while two education & training services firms placed fourth and tenth, Estacio Participacoes (OTCQX:ECPCY) , and Navitas (OTCPK:NVTZF) .
Two grocery stores industry representative firms placed fifth, and ninth, Wesfarmers (OTCPK:WFAFF) , and Koninklijke Ahold (ARDNY) .
Placing sixth and seventh were two farm products providers, Marine Harvest (OTCPK:MHGVY) , and Brasilagro – Cia Bras (LND) .
Finally, in eighth place, a lone beverages-soft drinks concern resided, Coca-Cola Amatil (OTCPK:CCLAF)  to complete the top ten July/August Consumer Defensive dogs by yield.
Just seven more industries constitute the sector: (1) beverages-brewers; (2) beverages – wineries & distilleries; (3) confectioners; (4) discount stores; (5) food distribution; (6) packaged goods; (7) pharmaceutical retailers.
Actionable Conclusions: (21-25) Five Consumer Defensive Dogs Were Estimated To Make 8.7% To 42.05% Upsides To August 1, 2018
To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a “market sentiment” gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield “dog” metrics, analyst mean price target estimates provided another tool to dig out bargains.
Actionable Conclusions: Wall St. Wizards Estimated (26) A 3.97% Median Target Price Upside and (27) 8.7% Net Gain From 30 Consumer Defensive Upside Dogs Come July/August 2018
Consumer Defensive top thirty stocks were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of August 1, 2017, and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2018.
A hypothetical $1,000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter, the analyst mean target price gauged the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends, less broker fees, as of 2018.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those ten stocks created data points for 2017. Projections based on estimated dividend amounts from $1,000 invested in the ten stocks and aggregate 1-year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance created the 2018 data points green for price and blue for dividend.
YChart analysts’ median 1-year targets projected a 3.5% lower dividend from $10k invested as $1k in ten dogs in this group while aggregate single share price for those ten was projected to increase by 3.8% in the coming year. Notice, price lower than dividend on the chart in the coming year means no overbought condition is on-tap for the Consumer Defensive top yield dogs.
The number of analysts contributing to the target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were generally not applied (n/a).
A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column of the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock’s price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock’s movement opposite of market direction.
Analysts Forecast A 4.6% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Consumer Defensive Stocks To July/August, 2018
Ten top Consumer Defensive dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend / price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.
As noted above, top ten Consumer Defensive dogs selected 6/16/17 showing the highest dividend yields represented just five of thirteen industries constituting the Consumer Defensive sector.
Actionable Conclusions: (28) Analysts Predicted 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield Consumer Cyclical Dogs Delivering 14.11% Vs. (29) 13.49% Net Gains by All Ten by July/August, 2018
$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Dividend Consumer Defensive kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 11.2% more net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all of those ten. The second lowest priced Consumer Defensive top yield dog, BrasilAgro – Cia Bras (LND), was projected to deliver the best net gain of 46.45%.
The five lowest-priced Consumer Defensive top yield dogs for June 16 were: Navitas (OTCPK:NVTZF); BrasilAgro – Cia Bras (LND); Estacio Participacoes (OTCQX:ECPCY); Coca-Cola Amatil (OTCPK:CCLAF); Svenska Cellulosa (OTCPK:SVCBF), with prices ranging from $3.58 to $7.90.
Five higher-priced Consumer Defensive dogs for June 16 were: Svenska Cellulosa (OTCPK:SVCBY); Marine Harvest (OTCPK:MHGVY); Vector Group (VGR); Koninklijke Ahold (OTCQX:ADRNY); Wesfarmers (OTCPK:WFAFF), whose prices ranged from $8.21 to $31.04.
That distinction between the five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O’Higgins’ “basic method” for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of “market sentiment” gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.
See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. — Fredrik Arnold
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of “dividends” from any investment.
Three of these top 50 Consumer Defensive pups by yield qualify as a valuable catches! Find them among the now 52 Dogs of the Week I found on The Dividend Dog Catcher premium site, or the fifty-one Dogs of the Week II now available. Click here to subscribe or get more information.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from indexarb.com, YCharts, and Yahoo Finance; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call from Yahoo Finance. Dog photo: getoutofdebt.org.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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