EUR/USD Daily Fundamental Forecast – July 25, 2017

It was a mixed and choppy day of trading in the markets in general with no specific direction. This was generally expected way of trading on the first day of the last week of the month. Generally, there is a lack of economic data and events during the last week of the month and so the currency moves are more dominated by the trade positioning for the new month and some month end flows as well and thats what we saw yesterday.

EURUSD Consolidates

The dollar did strengthen against the euro but it was only in a small way as the EURUSD pair bottomed out at 1.1624 which suggests that the move was more of a correction than a change in trend. Expected the consolidation and the ranging to continue for today as well as the market awaits the FOMC minutes later in the day. There will be no rate announcement and there will be no press conference following the statement which is likely to make it one of the more boring FOMC releases but even in that case, the market could try and read between the lines to get some hints.

EURUSD Hourly

The dollar bulls are desperately seeking for some help from somewhere but so far, the data from the US and also the Fed have done little to support the dollar. Also, the administrative muddles that the Trump team seems to be getting itself into, every other week, seems to be having an impact on the dollar as well. So the FOMC minutes will be looked at very closely for hints in the monetary policy and also on the timeline for the next hike by the Fed and whether another hike is still open for this year.

Looking ahead to the rest of the day, we have the consumer confidence data from the US but we do not expect that to have much of an impact on the prices. We expect EURUSD to continue to consolidate with a bullish bias.

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