Growth to accelerate as UK economy bounces back 

“It is a gentle increase over the next few quarters,” said Amit Kara, Niesr’s Head of UK macroeconomics research.

“If you look below the bonnet of our forecasts, consumer spending is no longer the engine of growth for the UK next year – the contribution shrinks to almost nothing.

“What is picking up is the contribution of exports, which is in large part because of our more optimistic view on the global economy including the eurozone, and also because of investment.”

Niesr has upgraded its global growth forecast, anticipating GDP worldwide will rise by 3.6pc this year, better than the 3.3pc growth the researchers predicted in May.

The institute believes that rising growth in the UK – and the wider world – means central banks need to take steps to begin returning interest rates to a more normal level, above their current emergency rates.

Mr Kara said the Bank of England “should withdraw some of that stimulus in six or eight months’ time, if the economy evolves as we forecast, which is with further strengthening in growth”. 

That would involve raising interest rates to 0.5pc – the level which rates were at before last August’s cut to 0.25pc.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*

5 + 8 =