Housing and consumer confidence on the calendar today

What is coming up in New York trade

US housing has suddenly softened and there are two big theories why:

1) The leading theory is that supply constrains have tightened the market. New construction is slow and permits are tough to come by. That’s left consumers to hunker down, rather than looking to buy. The best evidence for this is the low amount of listings 

2) The housing market isn’t as healthy as it seems. Credit is tighter and many low-to-middle class buyers were priced out but the recovery since the crisis.

We won’t get an answer today but the June S&P Case-Shiller house price index will offer some clues. The 20-city index is expected to be up 5.6% y/y when the numbers are released at 1300 GMT (9 am ET).

At 1400 GMT (10 am ET) the August consumer confidence data from the Conference Board will be released. The consensus is for a 120.7 reading. The US dollar is like a ship that’s taking on water at the moment and another wave of bad news — even a small wave — could swamp it.

There is also talk of a speech from the Fed’s Evans but I don’t see him on the calendar. I’ll update when I know more.

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