Red Lion Hotels Corporation Risk Points versus Consumer Discretionary


Red Lion Hotels Corporation Risk Points versus Consumer Discretionary

Red Lion Hotels Corporation (NYSE:RLH) Risk Points versus Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

Date Published:



PREFACE


This is a scatter plot analysis of the critical risk points from the option market for Red Lion Hotels Corporation (NYSE:RLH)
compared to its own past and the Consumer Discretionary ETF. In order to examine the forward looking risk for Red Lion Hotels Corporation (NYSE:RLH) the next 30-days, we must look to the option market.

Now, before we dive into the analysis on RLH, we make one critical note since we’re talking about options:


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In the “Why This Matters” section at the end of this article on Red Lion Hotels Corporation (NYSE:RLH) , we’re going to take a step back and show in great specificity
that there is actually a lot less “luck” in successful option trading than many people know.

But that’s at the end, now let’s jump back into the risk point charting and number crunching for Red Lion Hotels Corporation (NYSE:RLH) . We start by noting that RLH is in the consumer services sector which means along with some other industries we also compare the company to the closest match we could find, which was
the Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) as a proxy for Red Lion Hotels Corporation.

We have highlighted the IV30® for XLY and for RLH in the table below.




SNAPSHOT SUMMARY














CONTEXT: THE INDICES
S&P 500 (SPY) IV30     7.46%
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) IV30     13.45%
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) IV30     9.47%
Biotech (IBB) IV30     16.87%

Red Lion Hotels Corporation (NYSE:RLH)
RLH 52 Week Low IV30     30.7%
RLH Current IV30     36.82%
RLH 52 Week High IV30     51.71%

RLH Current HV30     29.22%




Red Lion Hotels Corporation Implied Risk Scatter Plot

(a new risk chart, built for option traders)

Scatter Plot Risk Legend


The blue point is the current 30-day implied volatility for Red Lion Hotels Corporation.


The black point is the current 30-day implied volatility for the Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY).


The red point is the 52 week low in IV30® for Red Lion Hotels Corporation.


The green point is the 52 week high in IV30® for Red Lion Hotels Corporation.

The various other scatter plot points in the middle give us risk context outside of the consumer services sector.

The IV30® is the risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days.

* We can see that the risk as reflected by the option market for the next 30-days for Red Lion Hotels Corporation is above all the indices we have
charted including the Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY).

* We can further see that the current IV30 for Red Lion Hotels Corporation of 36.82% is closer to the annual low of 30.7% than the annual high of 51.71%.
Simply stated, this means that the option market is pricing less risk than the average over the past year.

* For some context, we note that the annual range in IV30® for the Consumer Discretionary ETF is between [8.88%, 19.14%]
while Red Lion Hotels Corporation has had a range of [30.7%, 51.71%].


Get this same analysis on any ticker here:

A New Kind of Risk Point Chart


This is chart was developed for the trader. It allows us to easily see where the forward looking risk for Red Lion Hotels Corporation (NYSE:RLH) lies relative
to the last year, and the various major stock groupings and the Consumer Services sector without using time series data, which can confuse the information.









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