UK retail data to lift GBP? » Future Currency Forecast
The pound euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is climbing higher this morning following the UK’s latest GDP data.
At the time of writing the GBP/EUR exchange rate is trading at around €1.1680 up approximately 0.3% from this morning’s opening rate.
Pound (GBP) inches higher on upbeat growth data
The pound (GBP) is posting modest gains against some of its rivals this morning following the latest batch of UK GDP data.
The publication showed that the UK economy expanded by 0.6% throughout the second quarter, softening marginally from the previous month’s 0.7% and printing in alignment with market forecasts.
Signs of ongoing economic recovery in the UK may continue to provide GBP with upbeat tailwinds as the week progresses, as Britain moves away from recession territory.
Looking ahead, the UK’s latest retail sales data is due for release on Friday morning. Economists expect to see UK retail activity rebounding from June’s bleak 1.2% contraction, increasing by 0.5% in July. Should the data print as forecast, improving consumer activity across Britain could reinforce a sense of growing economic morale in the UK, signalling an easing of the UK’s cost-of-living pressures heading into the third quarter.
Elsewhere, global risk dynamics could continue to drive movement in the pound euro exchange rate. Gloomy trading conditions could bolster the safe-haven euro, while the increasingly risk-sensitive pound may benefit from a cheery market mood.
Euro (EUR) retreats amid increasing risk appetite
The euro (EUR) continues to face headwinds this morning amid a lack of data. While EUR recently strengthened due to its negative correlation with a weakened US dollar (USD), a stabilising ‘greenback’ saw EUR relinquish its recent gains.
Looking ahead, a data-light end to the week in the Eurozone could see EUR left vulnerable to global trade dynamics, with any risk-off flows likely to bolster the safe-have common currency.
Otherwise, EUR may move in accordance with USD fluctuations this afternoon. The latest initial jobless claims data in North America could undermine USD this afternoon, should the report show an increase in newly unemployed US citizens.
As such, EUR may benefit from a weakened USD once again, as renewed signs of cooling US employment reinforce market speculation of an aggressive path forwards from the Federal Reserve.
Source link