As Hong Kong property launches hit 7-year high, analysts say pent-up demand may moderate

CK Asset Holdings will also launch 15 of the 70 remaining units in its El Futuro project in Sha Tin. The first batch of the project was launched in 2020. The latest units to be put on offer on May 1 have the “best views of the horse racing course at night and special features such as U-shaped bedroom windows”, a spokeswoman said.

Including uncleared inventory at projects launched in previous years, 6,060 units have been sold between January and April, according to data tracked by Midland.

“The inventory of developers should drop steadily towards the end of the year,” said Buggle Lau Ka Fai, Midland’s chief analyst. “A 10 to 20 per cent drop is reasonable.”

Hong Kong homebuyers snap up all flats at Great Eagle’s Onmantin project

At the end of 2023, Hong Kong developers had an estimated 22,000 unsold new homes, Lau said.

Developers launched only 4,700 units at most between January and April in the 2018-2023 period, but the recent removal of the decade-old property cooling measures has given them an incentive to ramp up launches, Lau added.

On February 28, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po announced the removal of all measures intended to cool housing prices. Among the measures scrapped were the Buyer’s Stamp Duty that targeted non-permanent residents and the New Residential Stamp Duty for second-time purchasers. Homeowners are also no longer required to pay a Special Stamp Duty if they sell their homes within two years.

Hong Kong home prices rise for first time in 11 months after curbs scrapped

The decade-old measures were scrapped to boost a struggling property market.

Along with the removal of all these restrictions, mortgage financing has also been relaxed. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority currently allows homes valued at less than HK$30 million to be eligible for 70 per cent mortgage financing, compared with the previous cap of 60 per cent for flats valued between HK$15 million (US$1.9 million) and HK$30 million.

At the same time, developers have also been extending discounted prices to attract more buyers.

For example, the first batch of flats at the Onmantin residential project by Great Eagle Holdings in Ho Man Tin was priced from HK$17,759 to HK$25,866 per square foot. The cheapest unit, measuring 388 sq ft, had a price tag of HK$6.89 million.

The project was launched on Saturday and all 260 flats on offer had been sold by 9pm.

The first batch’s price range was more than 25 per cent cheaper than that of the nearby In One Above residential project, which was launched by Chinachem Group in May last year.

Hong Kong’s buoyant home sales to face gravity of continued high interest

The prices at Onmantin were also the lowest for the neighbourhood since 2016, when Kerry Properties launched its Mantin Heights development at an average of HK$19,000 per square foot.

“As market sentiment has significantly improved in the two months after the removal of the market curbs, much of the purchasing power has been consumed, ” said Eddie Kwok, executive director, valuation and advisory services, CBRE Hong Kong. “It is likely that the market could perform moderately in the coming months.”

Properties that have been priced at a bargain have already been absorbed by the market, said Cathie Chung, senior director of research at JLL in Hong Kong.

“Sell-through rates in some major project launches dropped from over 95 per cent in the first round to around 70 per cent in subsequent rounds,” Chung said. “With abundant supply and high interest rates in place, buyers in general are looking for a bargain in this tug of war game between developers and sellers.”

Given that interest rates have remained at a more than two-decade high, new unsold units could be fully absorbed by 2025, said Hannah Jeong, head of valuation and advisory services in Hong Kong at Colliers.

“Many first homebuyers, both from Hong Kong and elsewhere, are comfortable about getting units from developers,” Jeong said.

“Also with new projects under construction, buyers do not need to start mortgages until completion, [and they are] betting that interest rates will be lower next year.”