MARKET MOVEMENTS:
–Brent crude oil is up 8.3% to $109.53 a barrel.
–European benchmark gas is up 7.4% to 51.05 euros a megawatt-hour.
–Copper futures fall 1.8% to $12,251.50 a metric ton.
–Gold futures are down 3.7% to $4,641.30 a troy ounce.
TOP STORY:
Oil Jumps After Trump Vows to Hit Iran ‘Extremely Hard’
Oil prices climbed more than $5 on Thursday after President Trump vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks, dashing hopes of an imminent de-escalation as the conflict entered its fifth week.
In early European trading, the front-month Brent contract for June delivery soared 6.6% to $107.82 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures for May rose 6.1% to $106.19 a barrel. Natural-gas prices also gained, with the front-month Dutch TTF contract–the European benchmark–up 4.8% at 49.87 euros a megawatt-hour.
OTHER STORIES:
TotalEnergies, Masdar Form $2.2 Billion Asia Renewables Joint Venture
TotalEnergies and Abu Dhabi Future Energy Co., also known as Masdar, have formed a $2.2 billion joint venture to combine their onshore renewable activities in nine Asian countries.
The venture will be the two companies’ sole vehicle for developing and operating onshore solar, wind and battery storage projects in markets such as Azerbaijan, South Korea, Indonesia and Japan, they said Thursday.
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Gold, Silver Fall as Investors Doubt Trump’s Exit Plan
Gold and silver prices swung into the red, alongside industrial metals and equities, as President Trump’s remarks dashed investors’ hopes for a clear timeline to end the war. Spot gold prices were down 3%, at roughly $4,670 a troy ounce. Spot silver fell more than 5%.
Thursday selloff is underpinned by concerns that higher oil prices will drive up inflation, leading to a more hawkish stance by central banks. Gold, which doesn’t generate any income, tends to thrive when rates are low. Gold has fallen by roughly 11% since the start of the war, retreating from record-high levels. The declines Thursday is likely fanned by investors choosing to take money off the table ahead of the long Easter weekend, said Jun Bei Liu, lead portfolio manager at Ten Cap.
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The Islands That Give Iran a Stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s fortifications on small islands near the Strait of Hormuz boost its power to control the key waterway, and reopening shipping there might require U.S. or allied forces to capture some of those same dots of land.
The importance of the islands such as Kharg, Qeshm and Abu Musa is coming into view as Iran causes an economic crisis by blocking most oil tankers from transiting the strait. The waterway carried about 20% of the world’s traded crude oil before the war; traffic has slowed to a trickle since the U.S.-Israeli air war on Iran began on Feb. 28.
MARKET TALKS:
Palm Oil Closes Higher, Tracking Gains in Crude Oil — Market Talk
1042 GMT – Palm oil closed higher, tracking gains in the crude oil market, amid expectations of lower inventory in the coming weeks, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Kenanga Futures analysts add that futures were likely supported by robust tropical oil exports demand in March. Kenanga Futures also sees support for the June futures contract at 4,690 ringgit and resistance at 4,830 ringgit. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for June delivery rose 25 ringgit to 4,794 ringgit a metric ton. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
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Copper Falls as Middle East Uncertainty Weighs — Market Talk
0924 GMT – Copper prices fall as prospects of further U.S. escalation in Iran and uncertainty over when the conflict would end fuel worries over global economic growth and demand. In mid-morning European trading, three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange decline 1.4% to $12,300 a metric ton. “The sector has faced heavy downward pressure as hostilities threatened an inflationary shock for the world economy,” analysts at ANZ say. Still, copper demand in China shows signs of recovery. Opportunistic buying has picked up, driving import premiums to a nine-month high, while stockpiles have dropped sharply, signaling continued underlying strength in the world’s largest copper-consuming market. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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Asian Petrochemicals Most Exposed to Middle East Disruption — Market Talk
0837 GMT – Asian petrochemicals are perhaps the most exposed industrial sector to the Strait of Hormuz transport disruption, given their dependence on Middle Eastern crude, LPG and LNG, Oxford Economics analysts write in a note. Unlike other sectors, petrochemicals are uniquely dependent on these streams, both as an energy and a feedstock source, they add. Japan and South Korea are the most exposed, with their heavy reliance on imported naphtha and LNG with limited domestic alternatives, they say. China has limited protection from its more intensive use of coal feedstocks in chemical production, but coastal petrochemical clusters remain highly exposed to imported naphtha, LPG, and LNG, they add. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
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Brent Crude Oil Prices Likely to Remain at Around $100
0812 GMT – Brent crude oil prices are expected to remain at around $100 per barrel in the near-term before gradually easing, UOB analysts say in a note. The Middle East conflict remains highly uncertain and volatile, although President Trump suggested that he is keen to end the war in two to three weeks. The key concern is that the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and various energy infrastructure across the region has been attacked and damaged. UOB maintains its forecast that Brent crude oil will trade at $110 a barrel in 2Q, $100 in 3Q and $90 in 4Q as well as 1Q 2027. Front-month Brent crude oil futures are up 7.0% at $108.23 a barrel. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
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Lack of Clarity on Hormuz Strait to Keep Fueling Oil Prices
0821 GMT – Trump’s latest speech doesn’t prompt Oxford Economics to change its baseline forecast for Brent to average $113 a barrel in 2Q, nor does it significantly alter the balance of risks, says global chief economist Ryan Sweet. Trump generally reiterated comments that the war will end in a few weeks, but Sweet says the military timeline is not the economic one. The key risk is the Hormuz Strait and Trump’s speech lacked any clarity-or plan-on reopening it. That will keep upward pressure on oil, and OE’s base case is that the strait still stay effectively shut until end-April, choking off supplies. The longer it is closed, the less effective strategic reserves and inventory reductions become, ramping up costs for the global economy. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
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European Gas Prices Face Higher Risk Premium Through 2027 — Market Talk
0759 GMT – European gas prices are expected to carry a higher risk premium through 2026-27 as the market increasingly reacts to the availability of individual cargoes rather than comfortable storage levels, according to ANZ. With Europe likely entering winter with smaller gas buffers, the system becomes more sensitive to cold weather, plant outages or supply disruptions, raising the odds of short-term price spikes even if average seasonal prices remain below 2022 highs. “The Middle East conflict has turned LNG into a supply?security story again,” analysts at ANZ say. “The market becomes more sensitive to weather, storage and headlines, with sharper moves through shoulder seasons.” In mid-morning European trade, the benchmark Dutch TTF front-month contract is up 2.9% to 48.88 euros a megawatt-hour. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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U.S.’s Energy Security Can’t Shield It Entirely From Price Shock — Market Talk
0741 GMT – The U.S. has plenty of gas, oil from Venezuela and its economy has never been better prepared to confront the current threat, President Trump said in a speech. Others aren’t so sure. The Iran conflict is still bad news for the U.S. economy, says Stefan Angrick at Moody’s Analytics. The U.S. certainly has energy security and isn’t exposed in the way that countries that can’t produce oil domestically are, he says. But it isn’t immune to the impact of the hostilities, which have disrupted global supply chains. “You’re not going to run out of oil or have to ground planes but stuff is going to get expensive for businesses and consumers.” Growth will slow when inflation goes up, and no amount of shale production can fix that, at least near term. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
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Summer Gas Disruptions Might Force Demand Cuts — Market Talk
0740 GMT – If disruptions to gas markets tied to the Middle East war persist through the summer, rebalancing is likely to come through weaker demand rather than increased supply, according to ANZ analysts. “This is the uncomfortable but effective ‘mitigation’ lever: industrial curtailments, fuel switching where possible, and demand response in power markets,” Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari say. Demand substitution is already underway, with gas-intensive users leaning towards more coal-fired power generation. “Japan said it would expand the use of such plants, the analysts say. “Germany is considering reactivating mothballed coal-fired plants as a way to curb high electricity prices.” According to ANZ, Newcastle coal futures for April climbed to $144 a metric ton, the highest price for a front month contract since October 2024. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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London, South African Miners Fall as Precious Metal Prices Drop — Market Talk
0738 GMT – London and South African miners are among the biggest fallers after President Trump dashed hopes of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, sending precious metal prices falling. Trump vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks in an address late Wednesday. Fresnillo, Endeavour, Antofagasta and Anglo American were topping the FTSE 100 index fallers–down 5.8%, 5.3%, 3.85% and 3.7% respectively. Elsewhere, South African gold miner Harmony was down 5.5%. New York gold futures are down 4% to $4,619.30 a troy ounce, silver is 7.3% lower at $70.54 an ounce and platinum drops 4.6% to $1,896.70 an ounce. (ian.walker@wsj.com)
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04-02-26 0751ET
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