Prediction: Trump’s Iran Deal Will Spark a Stock Market Rally Into Midterms

Gas prices were rising fast enough to turn a geopolitical standoff into an economic problem for everyday Americans. Over the past two weeks, investors watched oil prices climb, inflation fears reawaken, and concerns grow that a broader Middle East conflict could push the economy off course just months before the midterm elections. 

But early Wednesday morning, the tone changed abruptly. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he was pausing “Project Freedom” — the U.S. operation escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz — for “a short period” to allow negotiations with Iran to continue.

Wall Street wasted little time responding. Stock futures climbed sharply in premarket trading as investors reassessed the risk of a prolonged oil shock, while another wave of upbeat AI earnings reports reinforced the view that corporate America is still growing despite inflation and trade concerns. With midterm elections now just six months away, that combination could matter just as much politically as it does financially.

Oil Prices Were Becoming a Serious Problem

Let’s start with the pressure point that suddenly eased: energy prices.

According to AAA, the national average for regular gasoline hit $4.536 per gallon Wednesday, up from $4.483 a day earlier. That’s a 1.2% jump in just 24 hours and roughly 12% higher than prices from less than two weeks ago. The rapid rise followed fears that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow shipping lane responsible for transporting roughly 20% of global oil supplies — could become disrupted as tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensified.

That’s not just a nuisance for consumers. It’s an inflation accelerant. Every $10 increase in crude oil prices tends to ripple through the economy in ways investors understand all too well:

• Higher transportation costs
• More expensive airline tickets
• Rising food prices
• Increased manufacturing expenses
• Lower consumer discretionary spending

Americans suddenly have less money left over to spend at restaurants, retailers, and entertainment venues.

The risk was becoming increasingly visible. Consumer sentiment readings had already weakened in recent months, while inflation data remained sticky enough to keep the Federal Reserve cautious about rate cuts. If gas prices kept climbing toward $5 per gallon nationally, Wall Street could have started pricing in slower economic growth alongside higher inflation — one of the market’s least favorite combinations.

In any case, Trump’s decision to pause the tanker escort operation immediately reduced the odds of a supply shock. Oil futures pulled back in overnight trading, and stock index futures turned sharply higher before the opening bell.

AI Earnings Are Giving the Market Another Tailwind

Granted, lower geopolitical tensions alone don’t sustain a bull market. Investors also need earnings growth. Fortunately for bulls, that story remains intact, too.

Recent earnings reports from major AI infrastructure companies continue showing that enterprise spending on artificial intelligence isn’t slowing down. Data center demand remains elevated, cloud spending continues expanding, and semiconductor companies tied to AI workloads are still reporting double-digit revenue growth.

Here’s what the numbers tell us from recent earnings releases:

Surprisingly, that matters politically too.

Bull markets create what economists call a “wealth effect.” When retirement accounts rise and portfolios recover, consumers tend to spend more freely. That spending supports corporate profits, which then feeds back into higher stock prices. It’s one reason presidents often point to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 as unofficial report cards on their economic stewardship — at least when they’re going up.

The S&P 500 had been wobbling as oil prices climbed. But if Middle East tensions continue cooling while AI-driven earnings growth remains strong, investors could quickly rotate back into risk assets.

Midterms Often Punish the Party in Power

History shows the president’s party already faces difficult odds during midterm elections. According to data from the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate historical records, the party controlling the White House has lost House seats in 19 of the last 21 midterm elections. Economic disruptions only worsen those odds.

That’s why inflation matters so much politically. Consumers may tolerate higher grocery bills for a while, but rapidly rising gasoline prices hit voters immediately and visibly. Drivers see the number every time they pull into a gas station.

That said, markets influence voter psychology, too. A rising stock market heading into November could help offset concerns about inflation, especially if oil prices stabilize and the Federal Reserve begins signaling potential rate cuts later this year. Retirement accounts recovering from recent volatility would likely improve consumer confidence, which historically benefits incumbents.

Regardless of how you look at it, Wall Street and Washington suddenly have aligned incentives. Investors want lower oil prices because they support earnings growth and lower inflation. Republicans want lower oil prices because angry voters rarely reward the party in power.

Key Takeaway

In short, Trump’s temporary pause of “Project Freedom” may end up becoming a pivotal market moment if it prevents a sustained oil spike while preserving ongoing negotiations with Iran. Gasoline prices climbing 12% in under two weeks were creating real economic stress, and investors were beginning to fear the return of inflation-driven market turbulence. Now the story has shifted. 

AI earnings growth remains strong, corporate spending continues expanding, and easing Middle East tensions reduce the odds of an energy shock derailing the economy. In the end, a calmer geopolitical backdrop combined with a resilient tech sector could provide the ingredients for a strong stock market rally heading into the midterms.

For sharp investors, the message is becoming clearer: the market may be betting that politics and profits are finally moving in the same direction again.