Bitcoin slipped back below $80,000 on Wednesday after a brief breakout attempt, as onchain data suggested the rally was already running into profit-taking pressure.
CryptoQuant said bitcoin’s 37% rebound from April lows still looks more like a bear-market rally than a confirmed trend reversal, with realized profits hitting their highest level since December and short-term holders increasingly exiting at a gain.
Bitcoin’s rally has pushed traders back into profit, with holders cashing out at the fastest pace since December, as recent buyers increasingly sell into strength, they wrote.
But the rebound still looks more like a relief rally than a true bull-market breakout, since profits remain well below levels seen in past sustained uptrends while unrealized gains are already high enough to tempt more selling, according to CryptoQuant. Traders are also sitting on an 18% unrealized profit margin, the highest since June 2025, a level where profit-taking has historically accelerated.
Singapore-based market maker Enflux offered a different read, focusing less on holder behavior and more on the macro catalyst that drove bitcoin’s initial move higher.
Enflux said bitcoin’s push through the $80,000 level was part of a broader risk-on reaction after President Donald Trump paused a U.S. naval operation tied to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a move that sent oil prices lower and lifted equities.
But while Enflux said the rally “makes sense mechanically,” it warned markets may be overestimating the durability of the catalyst, noting that previous Trump diplomatic pauses since March either reversed within days or were misread by traders.
Glassnode, however, offered a more constructive view, arguing bitcoin’s recent move reflects an early structural recovery rather than just a short-lived macro bounce.
The analytics firm said bitcoin had reclaimed two closely watched on-chain levels in a note this week: the True Market Mean at $78,200 and the short-term holder cost basis near $79,100, levels that often serve as dividing lines between weaker and stronger market regimes.
Glassnode identified roughly $85,200 as the next major resistance zone, while pointing to improving U.S. spot ETF inflows and persistent negative perpetual funding, a sign some traders remain positioned for downside even as prices recover.
Still, Glassnode stopped short of declaring a clean breakout.
Long-term holders are beginning to realize profits, while elevated realized losses across the broader market suggest bitcoin still needs stronger spot demand to sustain a more durable move higher.
Prediction markets reflected similar caution. On Polymarket, traders assigned relatively low odds to bitcoin extending cleanly toward $85,000 or beyond this week, suggesting the market remains hesitant to treat the recent rebound as a confirmed breakout.
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