- The ETH/BTC ratio has been rejected below a long-term descending trendline, showing that Ethereum remains weak against Bitcoin.
- If the trend persists, the next major support level is 0.0176 BTC, implying about 40%% additional downside from current levels.
- On-chain data show rising Ethereum reserves on Binance and declining Bitcoin exchange reserves, pointing to a market structure that favors Ethereum weakness and Bitcoin strength.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Ethereum is continuing to weaken against Bitcoin, with technical signals pointing to the risk of further losses.
Cointelegraph reported on May 10 that the ETH/BTC ratio, which measures Ethereum’s relative value against Bitcoin, was rejected again below a long-term descending trendline that has capped advances since 2022. Similar rejections in the past were followed by steep declines in Ethereum, suggesting the pattern could repeat.
In August 2025, a retest of the same trendline failed after resistance at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level aligned with the 50-month exponential moving average. ETH/BTC then fell below the 20-month exponential moving average, around 0.034 BTC, in a signal of renewed downside.
If the pattern persists, the next major support level is 0.0176 BTC. That would mark about 40% additional downside from current levels and coincides with the 2020 cycle low.
On-chain indicators also support the bearish case for Ethereum. CryptoQuant data showed Binance held about 3.62 million ETH in May, representing roughly 24.6% of total exchange reserves. That suggests the amount of Ethereum available for sale in the market is increasing.
Bitcoin, by contrast, has been showing a decline in exchange reserves. That indicates continued withdrawals for long-term holding, creating a relatively tighter supply backdrop.
The market sees Ethereum’s underperformance against Bitcoin continuing for now if those supply and structural shifts persist.
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