Pound to Euro Flat after Mixed UK Jobs Data

– Written by


James Fuller

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Flat after Mixed UK Jobs Data

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trapped in a narrow range on Tuesday, as the UK’s latest labour market data left Sterling lacking direction.

At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading at €1.1520, virtually unchanged on the day.

The Pound (GBP) struggled to build on Monday’s gains during Tuesday’s session, as a weaker-than-expected UK labour market report dampened demand for Sterling.

The latest figures showed that UK unemployment unexpectedly edged up from 4.9% to 5% in the three months to March, while wage growth also cooled over the same period.

There was one brighter spot for GBP investors, with employment rising by 148,000, comfortably beating forecasts. However, this was offset by a more troubling April payrolls reading, which showed the number of payrolled employees falling by 100,000.

With the data pointing to some loss of momentum in the UK labour market, the Pound’s upside was limited, leaving Sterling trading without much conviction.

The Euro (EUR) was left on the defensive on Tuesday, as an absence of notable Eurozone economic releases gave the common currency little fresh support.

With no domestic data to provide direction, EUR investors were instead left taking cues from wider market dynamics.

This left the Euro vulnerable to pressure from the US Dollar (USD), as the common currency’s negative correlation with a firmer ‘Greenback’ further limited EUR demand.

As a result, the Euro struggled to capitalise on the Pound’s weaker footing, leaving EUR subdued through the session.

Near-Term GBP/EUR Forecast: UK Inflation Data to Weigh on the Pound?

Looking ahead, Wednesday’s UK consumer price index will likely be the key driver of GBP movement.

Economists expect headline inflation to have cooled from 3.3% to 3% in April, while core inflation is forecast to ease more sharply, from 3.1% to 2.7%.

Should the figures come in as expected, signs of softer price pressures could see markets pare back bets on further Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes. This may leave Sterling vulnerable to losses.

However, an upside surprise could have the opposite effect. If inflation proves stickier than forecast, GBP could strengthen as investors reassess the BoE’s policy outlook.

For the Euro, Germany’s latest producer price index may provide direction. Forecasts point to a sharp rise in factory gate inflation, which could feed through into expectations for stronger consumer price pressures across the wider Eurozone.

In turn, this may offer the Euro some support.

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts