Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Momentum Builds Inside Tightening Range

Bull Trend Structure Remains Intact

The trend structure favours an upside breakout given the recent successful test of support near the 200-day moving average in March, resulting in a higher swing low of $4,091. That was the first test of support near the 200-day average since March 2024, and the clear bullish response confirmed the integrity of the larger bull trend. Therefore, there is no reason to suspect a failure of support on another test. However, that outlook could begin to change on a sustained decline below that indicator.

There is a confluence of possible support starting around the February spike low of $4,401 and down to the 200-day moving average around $4,371. That range includes an uptrend line that was recently joined by the 200-day average. The prior confirmation of support near the 200-day average adds to the possibility of seeing support there again or within the $4,401 to $4,371 price zone.

Resistance Levels Define Upside Trigger

The 50-day moving average is near $4,671 and it continues to indicate dynamic resistance for the immediate trend, along with the downtrend line. A decisive breakout will also trigger the triangle pattern. The lower swing high of $4,774 from May is key resistance from structure after that. A recovery above that high will signal a reversal of the short declining ABCD pattern and increase the chance for further strengthening above the lower swing high of $4,891 from April.

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