Jun 26, 2026
The oil market’s recent sell-off paused yesterday following reports that a commercial vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, according to ING. The incident underscored the fragile nature of the ceasefire and highlighted ongoing risks for vessels in the Persian Gulf. ICE Brent reversed earlier losses to settle more than 2% higher. Despite this rebound, market momentum remains largely downward, with attention focused on the resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to increase. Much of that increase, however, comes from previously stranded vessels leaving the Gulf, while vessel flows into the Gulf remain more modest. This suggests that once stranded vessels have departed, flows could pull back. The latest strike on a vessel is likely to slow traffic, as the International Maritime Organisation has suspended its evacuation plan for stranded ships.
OPEC faces additional challenges after the UAE’s recent exit. Iraq’s oil ministry is pressuring the group for a higher production quota, threatening to reconsider its membership if it does not receive a larger one. Iraq is the second-largest producer within OPEC, pumping more than 4 million barrels per day before the Iran war but less than 1.5 million barrels per day in recent months due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Comments from the oil ministry appear more like a threat. If the situation becomes more serious, it will only add to the surplus narrative for 2027. Iraq has a production capacity of almost 4.7 million barrels per day.
US natural gas prices experienced a choppy session. They initially sold off after EIA data showed US natural gas storage increased by 76 billion cubic feet over the last week, exceeding the expected 69 billion cubic feet increase and just above the five-year average change of plus 75 billion cubic feet. Total US gas storage now stands 5.7% above the five-year average. Despite the bearish storage report, front-month Henry Hub futures ended the day 3.8% higher, as forecasts point to hotter weather driving expectations for stronger power-sector demand.
Base metals moved higher on Thursday. Copper rebounded from recent losses as lower prices encouraged consumers and investors to return to the market. Improved sentiment across broader financial markets also supported the rebound from this week’s macro-driven selloff. Aluminium edged higher, recovering some ground after a sharp decline earlier in the week, as easing Middle East tensions reduced the geopolitical risk premium. Nickel rebounded following recent losses, though expectations of growing Indonesian supply continue to weigh on the longer-term outlook.
In precious metals, gold steadied after falling below the $4,000 per ounce level earlier in the week, finding support from lower Treasury yields following softer US inflation data. Still, a stronger dollar and reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Silver also edged higher but remains under pressure after this week’s broader selloff in precious metals.
In its monthly update, the International Grains Council (IGC) raised its 2026/27 global corn output forecast from 1,300 million tonnes to 1,310 million tonnes. Consumption projections increased to 1,325 million tonnes from 1,316 million tonnes. Global corn ending stock estimates rose to 298 million tonnes from 291 million tonnes. For wheat, the IGC left its 2026/27 consumption estimates unchanged at 827 million tonnes, while global production estimates edged marginally higher from 820 million tonnes to 821 million tonnes. Despite this, ending stock estimates edged down from 282 million tonnes to 280 million tonnes. For soybeans, the IGC left worldwide production and consumption estimates unchanged at 442 million tonnes and 445 million tonnes, respectively, leaving global soybean ending stocks steady at 76 million tonnes.
This report provides a comprehensive view of the crude oil and processed petroleum industry in Iraq, tracking demand, supply, and trade flows across the national value chain. It explains how demand across key channels and end-use segments shapes consumption patterns, while also mapping the role of input availability, production efficiency, and regulatory standards on supply.
Beyond headline metrics, the study benchmarks prices, margins, and trade routes so you can see where value is created and how it moves between domestic suppliers and international partners. The analysis is designed to support strategic planning, market entry, portfolio prioritization, and risk management in the crude oil and processed petroleum landscape in Iraq.
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Key findings
- Domestic demand is shaped by both household and industrial usage, with trade flows linking local supply to imports and exports.
- Pricing dynamics reflect unit values, freight costs, exchange rates, and regulatory shifts that affect sourcing decisions.
- Supply depends on input availability and production efficiency, creating a distinct national cost curve.
- Market concentration varies by segment, creating different competitive landscapes and entry barriers.
- The 2035 outlook highlights where capacity investment and demand growth are most aligned within the country.
Report scope
The report combines market sizing with trade intelligence and price analytics for Iraq. It covers both historical performance and the forward outlook to 2035, allowing you to compare cycles, structural shifts, and policy impacts.
- Market size and growth in value and volume terms
- Consumption structure by end-use segments
- Production capacity, output, and cost dynamics
- Trade flows, exporters, importers, and balances
- Price benchmarks, unit values, and margin signals
- Competitive context and market entry conditions
Product coverage
- Crude Oil and Processed Petroleum
Country coverage
Country profile and benchmarks
This report provides a consistent view of market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators for Iraq. The profile highlights demand structure and trade position, enabling benchmarking against regional and global peers.
Methodology
The analysis is built on a multi-source framework that combines official statistics, trade records, company disclosures, and expert validation. Data are standardized, reconciled, and cross-checked to ensure consistency across time series.
- International trade data (exports, imports, and mirror statistics)
- National production and consumption statistics
- Company-level information from financial filings and public releases
- Price series and unit value benchmarks
- Analyst review, outlier checks, and time-series validation
All data are normalized to a common product definition and mapped to a consistent set of codes. This ensures that comparisons across time are aligned and actionable.
Forecasts to 2035
The forecast horizon extends to 2035 and is based on a structured model that links crude oil and processed petroleum demand and supply to macroeconomic indicators, trade patterns, and sector-specific drivers. The model captures both cyclical and structural factors and reflects known policy and technology shifts in Iraq.
- Historical baseline: 2012-2025
- Forecast horizon: 2026-2035
- Scenario-based sensitivity to income growth, substitution, and regulation
- Capacity and investment outlook for major producing companies
Each projection is built from national historical patterns and the broader regional context, allowing the report to show where growth is concentrated and where risks are elevated.
Price analysis and trade dynamics
Prices are analyzed in detail, including export and import unit values, regional spreads, and changes in trade costs. The report highlights how seasonality, freight rates, exchange rates, and supply disruptions influence pricing and margins.
- Price benchmarks by country and sub-region
- Export and import unit value trends
- Seasonality and calendar effects in trade flows
- Price outlook to 2035 under baseline assumptions
Profiles of market participants
Key producers, exporters, and distributors are profiled with a focus on their operational scale, geographic footprint, product mix, and market positioning. This helps identify competitive pressure points, partnership opportunities, and routes to differentiation.
- Business focus and production capabilities
- Geographic reach and distribution networks
- Cost structure and pricing strategy indicators
- Compliance, certification, and sustainability context
How to use this report
- Quantify domestic demand and identify the most attractive segments
- Evaluate export opportunities and prioritize target destinations
- Track price dynamics and protect margins
- Benchmark performance against leading competitors
- Build evidence-based forecasts for investment decisions
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, wholesalers, investors, and advisors who need a clear, data-driven picture of crude oil and processed petroleum dynamics in Iraq.
FAQ
What is included in the crude oil and processed petroleum market in Iraq?
The market size aggregates consumption and trade data, presented in both value and volume terms.
How are the forecasts to 2035 built?
The projections combine historical trends with macroeconomic indicators, trade dynamics, and sector-specific drivers.
Does the report cover prices and margins?
Yes, it includes export and import unit values, regional spreads, and a pricing outlook to 2035.
Which benchmarks are included?
The report benchmarks market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators for Iraq.
Can this report support market entry decisions?
Yes, it highlights demand hotspots, trade routes, pricing trends, and competitive context.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Report Scope and Analytical Framing
- Report Description
- Research Methodology and the Analytical Framework
- Data-Driven Decisions for Your Business
- Glossary and Product-Specific Terms
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2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Concise View of Market Direction
- Key Findings
- Market Trends
- Strategic Implications
- Key Risks and Watchpoints
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3. DOMESTIC MARKET SIZE AND DEVELOPMENT PATH
Market Size, Growth and Scenario Framing
- Market Size: Historical Data (2012-2025) and Forecast (2026-2035)
- Growth Outlook and Market Development Path to 2035
- Growth Driver Decomposition
- Scenario Framework and Sensitivities
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4. CATEGORY SCOPE, DEFINITIONS AND BOUNDARIES
Commercial and Technical Scope
- What Is Included and How the Market Is Defined
- Market Inclusion Criteria
- Product / Category Definition
- Exclusions and Boundaries
- Distinction From Adjacent Products and Substitute Categories
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5. CATEGORY STRUCTURE, SEGMENTATION AND PRODUCT MATRIX
How the Market Splits Into Decision-Relevant Buckets
- By Product Type / Configuration
- By Application / End Use
- By Customer / Buyer Type
- By Channel / Business Model / Technology Platform
- Segment Attractiveness Matrix
- Product Matrix and Segment Growth Logic
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6. DOMESTIC DEMAND, CUSTOMER AND BUYER ARCHITECTURE
Where Demand Comes From and How It Behaves
- Consumption / Demand: Historical Data (2012-2025) and Forecast (2026-2035)
- Demand by End-Use and Buyer Group
- Demand by Customer / Consumer Segment
- Purchase Criteria, Switching Logic and Adoption Barriers
- Replacement, Replenishment and Installed-Base Dynamics
- Future Demand Outlook
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7. DOMESTIC PRODUCTION, SUPPLY AND VALUE CHAIN
Supply Footprint and Value Capture
- Production in the Country
- Domestic Manufacturing Footprint
- Capacity, Bottlenecks and Supply Risks
- Value Chain Logic and Margin Pools
- Distribution and Route-to-Market Structure
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8. IMPORTS, EXPORTS AND SOURCING STRUCTURE
Trade Flows and External Dependence
- Exports
- Imports
- Trade Balance
- Import Dependence
- Sourcing Risks and Resilience
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9. PRICING, PROMOTION AND COMMERCIAL MODEL
Price Formation and Revenue Logic
- Domestic Price Levels and Corridors
- Pricing by Segment / Specification / Channel
- Cost Drivers and Margin Logic
- Promotion, Discounting and Procurement Patterns
- Revenue Quality and Commercial Levers
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10. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE AND PORTFOLIO POWER
Who Wins and Why
- Market Structure and Concentration
- Competitive Archetypes
- Segment-by-Segment Competitive Intensity
- Portfolio Breadth and Product Positioning
- Capability Matrix
- Strategic Moves, Partnerships and Expansion Signals
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11. DOMESTIC MARKET STRUCTURE AND CHANNEL LOGIC
How the Domestic Market Works
- Core Demand Centers
- Local Production and Distribution Roles
- Channel Structure
- Buyer and Procurement Architecture
- Regional Imbalances Within the Country
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12. GROWTH PLAYBOOK AND MARKET ENTRY
Commercial Entry and Scaling Priorities
- Where to Play
- How to Win
- Distributor / Partner / Direct Entry Options
- Capability Thresholds
- Entry Risks and Mitigation
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13. WHERE TO PLAY NEXT: MOST ATTRACTIVE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
Where the Best Expansion Logic Sits
- Most Attractive Product Niches
- Most Attractive Customer Segments
- White Spaces and Unsaturated Opportunities
- High-Margin and Underpenetrated Pockets
- Most Promising Product Adjacencies
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14. PROFILES OF MAJOR COMPANIES
Leading Players and Strategic Archetypes
- Leading Manufacturers and Suppliers
- Production Footprint and Capacities
- Product Portfolio and Segment Focus
- Pricing Positioning and Indicative Price Logic
- Channel / Distribution Strength
- Strategic Archetypes
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15. METHODOLOGY, SOURCES AND DISCLAIMER
How the Report Was Built
- Modeling Logic
- Source Register
- Publications, Regulatory and Industry References
- Analytical Notes
- Disclaimer
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