Currency analysts say booming AI exports are creating “super surpluses” in Korea and Taiwan, strengthening the case for their currencies as energy-dependent rivals fall behind.
The artificial-intelligence boom is starting to redraw Asia’s currency map.
Taiwan and South Korea are emerging as the clear winners, with demand for advanced semiconductors, servers and data-centre equipment producing what Goldman Sachs calls “super surpluses” across north Asia.
“Surging AI investment is driving equipment spending, with Taiwan the biggest — but certainly not only — beneficiary,” the bank said.
“The tech export boom is driving enormous surpluses in north Asia and, to varying degrees, spilling over into stronger domestic activity.”
That gives the Taiwan Dollar and Korean Won something many other Asian currencies currently lack: a powerful source of export income at a time when higher energy costs are putting pressure on import-dependent economies.
The distinction is becoming increasingly stark.
Goldman describes Taiwan and Korea as “long tech” because both are major net exporters of electronics.
They remain energy importers, but booming AI demand is more than compensating for that weakness.
Other economies are less fortunate.
Those with limited exposure to AI-related exports, little refining capacity and heavy dependence on imported oil and gas sit in what Goldman calls the “short energy” and “short tech” corner of the region.
Renewed US-Iran tensions have made that divide more important.
“This is a headwind for Asian economies, especially those without significant exposure to AI-related demand and with limited local refining capacity,” the bank said.
In other words, the AI boom is not lifting all currencies equally. It is rewarding the countries that manufacture the hardware while making life harder for those mainly paying the region’s larger energy bill.
“Super Surpluses” Strengthen the Currency Case
Goldman says the external surpluses in Taiwan and Korea have been driven by “the surge in exports of AI servers and their key semiconductor components”.
Those export flows support the currencies directly by bringing foreign revenue into domestic markets.
They also reduce the pressure on policymakers to keep exchange rates weak simply to protect competitiveness.
Goldman notes that governments in Korea, Japan and increasingly China now appear to prefer “modestly stronger currencies”.
That is quite a shift. Asian policymakers have traditionally worried that currency appreciation could hurt exporters.
The scale of the AI-led demand boom gives Taiwan and Korea more room to tolerate strength without sacrificing market share.
There are risks, of course.
Semiconductor demand is cyclical, and any slowdown in AI spending would hit both economies harder than most.
Higher oil prices also remain a clear drag because neither Korea nor Taiwan is energy self-sufficient.
But for now, the sums still favour north Asia.
The global AI investment cycle is producing export revenues on a scale large enough to offset higher energy imports, bolster domestic activity and improve the underlying balance-of-payments case for the Won and Taiwan Dollar.
The AI currency war, then, is not really being won by the countries building the most software.
It is being won by the economies selling the chips, servers and machinery needed to run it.
Leave a comment