EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1710 accelerated lower last week. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, a short term top should be in place. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 1.1539). Decisive break there will argue that rebound from 1.1323 has completed as a three wave corrective move, and bring deeper fall to retest this low. On the upside, above 1.1659 minor resistance will extend the rally from 1.1323 through 1.1710.
In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 intact, price actions from 1.2081 are viewed as a corrective pattern in the larger up trend from 1.0176 (2025 low). Break of 1.2081 is expected at a later stage after the correction completes. However, sustained break of 1.1353 will raise the chance of medium term trend reversal.
In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.
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