As Bitcoin’s next move remains uncertain, what past trends suggest
- The historical correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar is set for another cameo this bull run.
- Bitcoin is nearing fair value price as long-term holders accumulated more BTC.
Price movement patterns often repeat themselves, which aids in predicting future prices of assets like Bitcoin [BTC] and other cryptocurrencies.
Analyzing the BTC/USD and DXY charts alongside their correlation coefficient revealed a key pattern — when BTC’s monthly correlation with DXY shifts from positive, it signals a major move, but the direction is not certain.
Historically, this has led Bitcoin to the final leg of a bull run 75% of the time or a drop during a bear market 25% of the time.
Source: TradingView
Many analysts are uncertain about Bitcoin’s next direction, but AMBCrypto has the answer. First, Bitcoin’s weekly dominance chart has broken out of a descending trendline, signaling potential strength.
Despite recent price declines, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $60K level. Meanwhile, altcoin market caps appear to have bottomed out and are now starting to trend upward.
This indicated that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may be preparing for a significant upward movement.
Source: TradingView
However, the Spot-Perpetual Price Gap on Binance from CryptoQuant remained negative, showing ongoing selling pressure on Bitcoin.
This gap, driven by aggressive liquidations and short positions, suggested that BTC price was nearing its fair value. This signaled a potential opportunity for investors to buy, indicating Bitcoin was likely heading upward.
Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin’s historical risk levels
The chart below highlights a risk level for Bitcoin, helping with long-term buying and selling points in the market. AT press time, the risk level was around 0.5, indicating low risk and a favorable buying opportunity.
Traders and investors can consider dynamic dollar-cost averaging in this region before risk levels rise, signaling the need to sell larger portions.
Source: Into The Cryptoverse
Also, since the 30th of July, over 500,000 BTC have been added to long-term holder wallets, signaling a bullish trend for Bitcoin.
This surge indicated that whales and institutions were actively accumulating Bitcoin, reflecting growing confidence in its future value.
Source: Bitcoin Magazine PRO
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Finally, Bitcoin gained momentum over Ethereum at press time. The BTC/ETH market cap ratio has steadily increased in August, indicating stronger accumulation of the king coin.
This trend suggested that Bitcoin was poised for further upward movement.
Source: IntoTheBlock
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