Bitcoin hasn’t rallied much after the ‘halving.’ Is $100,000 next?

One month after Bitcoin’s big halving event, people in the crypto community want to know where the major cryptocurrency is heading.

The latest Bitcoin halving — a technical event that cuts the reward for mining new Bitcoin by half — occurred on April 19-20, which divided the reward from 6.25 Bitcoin to 3.125. Bitcoin’s halving, a feature to ensure the cryptocurrency’s scarcity and safeguard it from inflation, happens every four years.

Right now, Bitcoin’s value is hovering around $65,000 — and it’s primarily in the green because inflation has eased and the stock market is bullish. Bitcoin didn’t jump significantly after the halving process and currently hovers roughly 12% below its record high of $73,803 set in March; it’s still up about 140% in the past year. But historically, Bitcoin has jumped after the halving event.

The first Bitcoin halving happened in November 2012, when the reward for mining a block was reduced from 50 Bitcoin to 25. At that time, Bitcoin’s price was $12. It went up to $44 in 100 days and then $135 in 300 days. The second halving event occurred in July 2016, when the reward was reduced from 25 Bitcoin to 12.5. The flagship cryptocurrency went from $658 to $1,551 in 300 days. At the third halving in May 2020, the Bitcoin incentive was reduced by half to 6.25 Bitcoin. At that time, Bitcoin was at $8,601, moving upward to $50,941 within 300 days.

Steven Lubka, a managing director at Bitcoin financial services company Swan Bitcoin, seems optimistic about the growth of the top cryptocurrency. In an email, he wrote that Bitcoin’s performance has a massive run-up ahead of the halving, which historically has not happened. “Bitcoin has never really seen a sharp rise post-halving; it generally occurs on a month-by-month basis as time progresses,” he said.

Rennick Palley, founding partner at the crypto venture capital firm Stratos, adds that in the next 12 months following the halving, Bitcoin will probably continue its upward price movement.

So why is this year’s halving different from its predecessors? It’s primarily because Bitcoin reached its peak a month prior, making it difficult to maintain the same momentum. Plus, experts add, the mainstream adoption of Bitcoin and the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs have changed the factors that affect the price movement of the top cryptocurrency.

According to Palley, the price of Bitcoin is now largely determined by global liquidity dynamics and adoption. “As fiat money continues to be printed and as more people around the world recognize the value of Bitcoin as a store of value, the price of Bitcoin in dollar terms will continue to rise,” he said.

Many will continue to be surprised by Bitcoin’s changes in dynamics, but the analysts say they won’t be surprised if the flagship cryptocurrency crosses the $100,000 mark this year. “It’s always difficult to forecast an exact timeframe, but I expect six-figure Bitcoin on the horizon,” Lubka said.

CoinGecko, a crypto tracking website, finds that Bitcoin’s price has increased by 96,302% since 2013.