Dollar falls with Treasury yields on views of looming US rate cuts

By Rae Wee

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar eased on Thursday and hit a one-month low against the yen as traders zeroed in on the idea that U.S. interest rates were likely to fall this year even after some upside surprises on inflation.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin retreated from a record struck earlier in the week, though its 0.4% loss on the day was insignificant in comparison to its 55% rally for the year thus far.

In his testimony to lawmakers on Wednesday, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said rate cuts will “likely be appropriate” later this year “if the economy evolves broadly as expected” and once officials gain more confidence in inflation’s steady deceleration.

Those remarks, coupled with data released on Wednesday that pointed to an easing of labour market conditions, sent U.S. Treasury yields falling, which in turn pushed the greenback broadly lower.

Against the yen, the dollar bottomed at a roughly one-month trough of 148.94 in early Asian trade on Thursday.

The euro and sterling held near one-month highs struck in the previous session and last bought $1.0902 and $1.2738 respectively.

“Dollar weakness against the major currencies came down to both the weak labour market data … and also Powell’s testimony,” said currency strategist Carol Kong at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“Powell didn’t really give away too much … (but) judging by the market reaction, Powell’s comments were less hawkish than some had expected. Markets were likely relieved that Powell didn’t change his risk assessment on inflation even after the January CPI (consumer price index) figures.”

Futures pricing currently point to a 70% chance that the Fed could begin easing rates by its June policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, with roughly 87 basis points of cuts priced in for the year.

Market bets for imminent cuts also kept U.S. Treasury yields under pressure, with the two-year yield – which typically reflects near-term rate expectations – last at 4.5640%. It touched a three-week low of 4.5100% in the previous session. [US/]

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All of that left the greenback pinned near a one-month low against a basket of currencies. The dollar index edged 0.04% lower to 103.30.

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar was little changed at 1.3518 per U.S. dollar after the Bank of Canada (BoC) on Wednesday kept its key overnight interest rate steady but said underlying inflation meant it was too early to consider a cut.

“We now think the BoC is more likely to delay any decision to cut rates until June 5,” said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at MonFX. “We maintain our short-CAD bias, but note the period of significant depreciation is likely to be delayed until the mid-Q2.”

The New Zealand dollar rose 0.05% to $0.6133, while the Australian dollar edged 0.11% higher to $0.6572.

Data on Thursday showed Australia’s surplus on trade goods widened in January as a rise in exports of farm products and gold outweighed growth in vehicle imports.

Over in the cryptoverse, bitcoin was last at $66,232, while ether slipped more than 0.2% to $3,842.20 after peaking at an over two-year high in the previous session.

(Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Christopher Cushing)