Emerging-Market Currencies Extend Their Steepest Rally This Year

May 6, 2024

2 minutes read

(Bloomberg) — Emerging-market currencies extended their biggest four-day rally of the year as traders cautiously hike their wagers for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, fueling demand for riskier assets.

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The benchmark gauge for developing-nation currencies rose as much as 0.3% Monday, before trimming gains, bringing its advance in the past four trading sessions to 0.8%. The charge was led Monday by Chile’s peso and South Africa’s rand, with the Chilean currency hitting its strongest level in over three months.

The main index for developing market stocks extended its rally for a third day, rising 0.6% and hitting the highest in almost two years. The gains were led by stocks from India, China and Saudi Arabia. The calendar for US economic data is light this week, leaving traders to focus squarely on Treasury refunding auctions and scheduled comments by about a dozen Fed officials.

“The expectation is for Fed speakers this week to reiterate the message just delivered from the FOMC: a bias for easing, but policymakers are willing to be patient if that’s what it takes to bring inflation back to 2%,” said Brendan McKenna, emerging-markets strategist with Wells Fargo.

Elsewhere, Israel’s shekel pared losses against the greenback after Hamas said it agreed to a cease-fire proposal by Qatar and Egypt. The currency weakened as much as 1.2% earlier in the day as the Israeli forces told civilians to move out of parts of Rafah, a possible prelude to a long-expected attack on the Gazan city.

Ratings Watch

Markets in three of the largest emerging economies got a boost after Turkey’s sovereign rating was upgraded, and as the outlooks for both Egypt and Nigeria were lifted.

Egypt’s credit rating outlook was raised to positive from stable by Fitch Ratings, after the North African nation secured an international bailout. Egypt’s dollar notes due in 2047 were set to reach the highest in more than three weeks.

Turkey’s five-year credit-default swaps — the cost to insure Turkish debt against default — headed for the lowest since February after the sovereign’s rating was upgraded by S&P Global Ratings. The ratings firm cited the government’s return to more orthodox economic policies.

“S&P’s credit rating upgrade over the weekend and no upside surprise to the April inflation print, should further improve the sentiment towards Turkish assets,” Deutsche Bank said in a note Monday. “We expect a significant acceleration in the performance of local bonds over the summer months.”

Nigeria’s credit rating outlook was also lifted by Fitch to positive, as reform progress since President Bola Tinubu’s assumption of power last year has been faster than anticipated.

Read more: Credit Upgrades Top Downgrades in Eastern Europe 10 to 0 in Week

Elsewhere in emerging markets, Hungary’s forint has received some support since late April when S&P kept the credit rating and outlook steady for the Central European country, despite budgetary pressures. Slovakia also escaped a second downgrade in four months after Prime Minister Robert Fico’s government pledged to reduce the fiscal shortfall.

Panama’s sovereign bonds were the biggest gainers in Latin America on Monday after Jose Raul Mulino won the presidential election and pledged a “pro-private enterprise” government in his victory speech.

(Updates with investor quote in fourth paragraph)