Gold price jumps as US dollar rate, treasury yield slip; US Fed rate cut, job data is focus. Opportunity to buy?

Gold rate today: Following slides in the U.S. dollar rates and the U.S. Treasury yields, gold price today witnessed strong buying in early morning deals. Gold futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) for August 2024 expiry opened higher at ₹72,879 per 10 gm. It touched an intraday high of ₹72,958 within a few minutes of the opening bell. In the international market, the spot gold price oscillates around $2,368 per ounce, whereas the Comex gold price is around $2,387 per troy ounce.

US dollar hits two-month low

Explaining the key factors influencing gold prices today, Anuj Gupta, Head of Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities, highlighted, “The rise in gold rates today is directly linked to the weakening of the US dollar rates. This is a significant development, driven by the US dollar index nearing the 104 level and the US dollar price in the forex market hitting a two-month low. These shifts have triggered profit booking in the US treasury market, leading to a slip in the US treasury yield. Consequently, investors are reallocating their funds from the currency and bond markets to other assets, notably gold.”

On why the US dollar price is sliding, Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said, “Buyers were giving the U.S. dollar the cold shoulder today following the weak ADP in the lead-up to the non-farm payrolls data (NFP), which enabled the gold price to prosper.”

US Fed rate cut buzz

“The fundamental outlook still looks constructive for gold as we move closer towards possible Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year. The $2,300 level could come into question on the downside if we get a powerful NFP figure,” Tim Waterer added.

US job data in focus

Highlighting the crucial role of the upcoming US job data release, Anuj Gupta advised, “Gold prices may remain in the range of ₹72,000 to ₹73,800 as investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the US job data, which is a key indicator of the health of the US economy. This data, which will be released on Friday, is expected to have a significant impact on the gold market. Being aware of this event and its potential implications can help investors make informed and prepared trading decisions.”

Anuj Gupta of HDFC Securities advised a ‘buy-on-dips’ strategy to gold investors, providing a clear and strategic direction for their trading decisions.

(With inputs from Reuters)

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