Markets To Observe Foreign Fund Movements, Currency Fluctuations, Global Trends In The Week

Global trends and foreign fund movements are expected to drive stock markets in the week, experts stated. At the same time, the analysts noted that investors could face volatility owing to the upcoming monthly derivatives expiry. 

The stock markets last week also witnessed volatility, however, managed to close the week with gains of about 1 per cent, reported PTI. The BSE Sensex climbed 1 per cent or 716.16 points to end the trading week at 73,142.8 points, while the NSE Nifty50 settled at 22,212.70 on Friday. 

Commenting on market movements, Ajit Mishra, SVP – Technical Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said, “We expect volatility to remain high due to the scheduled expiry of February month derivatives contracts. Besides, participants should keep a close watch on the performance of the global indices, especially the US for cues.”

The expert added that after rallying ahead in the beginning of last week, the stock markets lost some momentum owing to mixed global signals along with profit taking in certain heavyweights. As such, both the benchmark indices, Nifty and Sensex, continue to trade back and forth during the week.

On the global front, Mishra noted, “After the marginal dip, the US benchmark index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has resumed the uptrend and also crossed a new milestone of 39,000. With a strong base of around 38,400, we expect the prevailing tone to continue in the index and that could also help our markets to maintain the positive bias.”

Market experts noted that the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting released by the banking regulator last week are also expected to provide some insight to the investors. 

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities, stated, “he rate-setting panel has hinted a cautious approach towards monetary easing amid uncertainties around inflation outlook. On the economy front, almost all MPC members continued to express a cautious approach to monetary easing, given the uncertainties surrounding the inflation outlook. With Q3 FY24 results season behind us, the market focus will be on the macro developments both domestic and international.”

Notably, the Reserve Bank of India held its bi-monthly MPC meet in February beginning and opted to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent for the sixth consecutive time. Further, crude oil prices, rupee movement, quarterly GDP data for India and the US, and monthly global manufacturing PMI data are all expected to be released in the week and will have a major impact on the stock market.

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