Nonfarm Payrolls promise explosive action in Gold, US Dollar, Stocks

Nonfarm Payrolls have clues about cooling the US labor market, reshaping expectations for interest rates and rocking markets. Join us for live coverage of the all-important NFP. The US dollar was stable ahead of the release, while gold lost some ground. 

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Why Nonfarm Payrolls matter for markets

Nonfarm Payrolls is the official US labor market report, usually published on the first Friday of the month. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has two mandates: price stability and full employment – and the latter is measured by this report. 

The economic calendar points to an increase of 185,000 jobs in the upcoming report for May 2024, similar to 175,000 reported for April. Apart from the headline data, the politically sensitive Unemployment Rate is projected to have remained at 3.9% and Average Hourly Earnings (wages) carry expectations for a 0.3% monthly gain and 3.9% yearly.

Other employment data released earlier this week mostly pointed lower: ADP’s private-sector labor report for May missed forecasts, and the JOLTs publication for April showed the softest hiring since 2021. A small uptick in the employment component of the ISM Services PMI partially offset the weak data. 

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