US Dollar Forecast: Inflation and Trade Jitters Stall Momentum – GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Services Sector Strength Offsets Manufacturing Contraction

The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 53.5 in March, recovering from February’s 10-month low of 51.6 and marking the fastest pace of expansion since December 2024.

The Services PMI led the gains, jumping to 54.3 from 51.0—well above expectations.

However, the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.8, down from 52.7 and below the forecast of 51.8, indicating a contraction and highlighting uneven momentum across sectors.

Dollar Faces Policy Uncertainty Amid Inflation and Trade Concerns

The dollar faces competing pressures. On one hand, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted persistent inflation concerns, signaling a slower pace of rate cuts through 2025.

On the other, potential disruptions from former President Trump’s proposed trade policies have raised investor concerns about economic headwinds.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks, which pointed to a strong labor market and inflation gradually approaching the 2% target, helped limit downside risks for the dollar.