Forecast for private investment to hit EGP 600bn in FY 2023/2024: Planning Ministry

The Ministry of Planning and Economic Development has unveiled a new approach for assessing private sector investments, revealing a surge in both the amount and proportion of private investments in Egypt.

In its pursuit of enhancing the national accounts system, the Ministry has developed a new method for quantifying private investments. This initiative is part of a broader effort to refine Egypt’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, which includes updating the economic census results from 2017-2018 and extending the output time series from 1981 to 2023. The updates encompass detailed sectoral and expenditure data, aligning with the most recent global standards for national accounts.

Planning Minister Hala El-Said reported that the Ministry collaborated with top international specialists and various agencies, such as the Investment Authority and the Free Zones Authority, to refine the investment calculation method. This two-year project involved numerous workshops and consultations with experts.

The revised methodology enhances the accuracy of informal sector investment estimates and integrates comprehensive data on research and development investments. This is particularly relevant for rapidly growing industries like media, electronics, software, and technological infrastructure, which have seen substantial expansion post-COVID-19. The method also accounts for household expenditures on residential construction and home maintenance.

Minister El-Said emphasized that the objective is to provide precise data on the magnitude and sectoral spread of private investments, thereby creating an accurate depiction of economic activities across various sectors.

With the implementation of this new method, the recalculated figures indicate a rise in private investment in Egypt. The estimated value for the fiscal year 2022/2023 is EGP 499.2bn, a significant increase from the previously estimated EGP 298.5bn. Consequently, the share of private investment in the total investment has climbed to 36.4% from 25.5%. For the first quarter of the fiscal year 2023/2024, private investments have reached roughly EGP 154bn, surpassing the initial estimate of EGP 114bn. By the end of the fiscal year 2023/2024, it is projected that private investments will approximate EGP 600bn.

Aiming for the upcoming fiscal year, the economic and social plan includes boosting the private investment share to 50% of the total investments by 2024/2025. This strategy aligns with the sovereign directives and supports the objectives of the structural economic reform program, in harmony with the refreshed vision of Egypt 2030.