Is Iceland Seafood International hf (ICE:ICESEA) A Risky Investment?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that ‘Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.’ So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Iceland Seafood International hf. (ICE:ICESEA) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Iceland Seafood International hf

How Much Debt Does Iceland Seafood International hf Carry?

As you can see below, at the end of December 2023, Iceland Seafood International hf had €113.9m of debt, up from €104.6m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had €16.5m in cash, and so its net debt is €97.3m.

How Healthy Is Iceland Seafood International hf’s Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Iceland Seafood International hf had liabilities of €137.1m due within 12 months, and liabilities of €45.0m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had €16.5m in cash and €59.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €105.8m.

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of €120.4m, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Iceland Seafood International hf’s use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

In order to size up a company’s debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

While Iceland Seafood International hf’s debt to EBITDA ratio (4.8) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 1.5, suggesting high leverage. In large part that’s due to the company’s significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. Worse, Iceland Seafood International hf’s EBIT was down 51% over the last year. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. There’s no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is Iceland Seafood International hf’s earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you’re keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don’t cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Iceland Seafood International hf saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

On the face of it, Iceland Seafood International hf’s conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. And even its net debt to EBITDA fails to inspire much confidence. Taking into account all the aforementioned factors, it looks like Iceland Seafood International hf has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn’t float our boat. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we’ve spotted 3 warning signs for Iceland Seafood International hf (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

At the end of the day, it’s often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It’s free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.