Is now the time to invest in the UK?

Cancel the recession

Clearly the risks of a deeper economic downturn have faded. After shrinking by 0.3% then 0.1% in the final two quarters of last year, the economy expanded by 0.6% in the first three months of 2024. That’s the fastest rate of growth the UK has seen in two years⁴.

In its most recent assessment of the economy, the OBR forecast growth of 0.8% for 2024 as a whole, aided by a fall in interest rates and recovery in real household incomes⁵.

While the impact of robust wages growth remains a concern, inflation continues to head back to the Bank of England’s 2% target. Annual inflation dropped a further 0.2% in March to 3.2% and is anticipated to have fallen again in April partly due to a cut in energy bills. The Bank of England’s expectation that inflation will be back around 2% imminently still looks plausible⁶.

Falling inflation, the prospect of lower interest rates plus modest economic growth add up to a positive backdrop for both UK shares and bonds.

Takeovers

Corporate buyers have been arriving in force after an extended lull. According to data from Dealogic, which tracks mergers and acquisitions globally, the value of bids for UK companies has hit its highest since 2018⁷.

A revised £34 billion bid for Anglo American from BHP and a cash offer for IDS (Royal Mail) from its largest shareholder are two of the latest examples of takeover fever now starting to spread through London. Both attempted deals are important because they signal that informed buyers still see the market as cheap.

Other deals agreed so far this year include bids for the cyber-security firm Darktrace and the paper and packaging company DS Smith.

The trigger for more takeovers could come from a drop in interest rates. The Bank of England has guided for a first cut in interest rates this summer. That would represent a significant turning point for dealmakers, who have had to contend with rising rates ever since December 2021.

Is the market still cheap?

The UK stock market has lagged behind since the Brexit vote of 2016, but is it still undervalued versus other markets after this latest revival?

^{Source: MSCI, 30.4.24}

Comparisons suggest the UK stock market is still cheaper than markets in Europe and the US, but the gaps have closed somewhat over the past couple of months. Having said that, the UK continues to look more attractive on the basis of each of the measures shown above. Interestingly, the dividend yield on UK shares has returned to being higher than the inflation rate.

The outlook for corporate profits – a critical determinant of market fortunes over the longer term – remains positive too. As a guide, the MSCI United Kingdom Index, which covers approximately 85% of the stock market, traded on a forward P/E of about 11.5 times earnings and an historic P/E of around 12.5 times at the end of last month. That implies corporate earnings growth of around 8% over the course of the next 12 months.

Investing ideas in the UK

Fidelity’s Select 50 list of favourite funds caters for investors seeking an income or growth or a combination of the two. The list currently has three actively managed UK funds and two ETFs tracking UK indices.

The FTF Martin Currie UK Equity Income Fund is actively managed by Ben Russon, Will Bradwell and Joanne Rands out of Leeds. Its objective is to generate an income higher than that of the FTSE All-Share Index plus investment growth over a three to five year period after fees and costs.

Among the fund’s 49 investments are holdings in some of the UK’s largest dividend payers, including Shell, AstraZeneca and Rio Tinto, although it is invested in some medium sized companies too – Cranswick, PageGroup and  Victrex for example. The fund pays a quarterly dividend and currently yields approximately 4.6%, an amount that is not guaranteed⁸.

The Liontrust UK Growth Fund is another actively managed Select 50 choice. It seeks to invest in companies with a durable competitive advantage that allows them to sustain high levels of profitability for longer than the market expects. Current large holdings in its 45 stock portfolio include Shell, Unilever, BAE Systems and Diageo⁹.

The Vanguard FTSE 250 UCITS ETF is one of two passive UK funds on the list. Fidelity’s experts like this fund due to Vanguard’s expertise in index tracking, a low ongoing fund charge and the fund’s focus on medium-sized companies, which have produced good long-term investment returns.

The FTSE 250 is currently home to many established companies with the potential to deliver further good growth. Examples that frequently feature among the holdings of actively managed UK equity funds include: Games Workshop and the instrumentation and software company Spectris.  These are among the top-10 largest constituents of the FTSE 250, along with Polar Capital Technology Trust and Greencoat UK Wind – two of the most bought investment trusts at Fidelity over the past year.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.
Source: Refinitiv, total returns from 30.4.19 to 30.4.24. Excludes initial charge.

Source:

¹ FTSE Russell, 18.10.22
² Bloomberg, 14.05.24
³ FTSE Russell, 30.04.24
⁴ ONS, 10.05.24
⁵ OBR, 06.03.24
⁶ ONS, 17.04.24
⁷ FT, 12.05.24
⁸ Franklin Templeton, 30.04.24
⁹ Liontrust, 30.04.24