Stocks rise as traders await Jackson Hole and payroll adjustment locks in rate bets

• Stocks ended higher Wednesday as traders took in jobs data and awaited the start of the Jackon Hole conference.

• Revised jobs data show that the economy added 818,000 fewer jobs than initially forecast.

• Investors are waiting for Powell to issue more guidance on Fed policy at Jackson Hole on Friday.

US stocks gained on Wednesday as traders awaited the start of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole economic conference and took in revised jobs data from the past year.

Major stock indexes traded higher, while Treasury yields dropped through Wednesday’s session.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued revised job figures from April 2023 through March 2024, which showed that the US economy added 818,000 fewer jobs during that timeframe than initially reported.

The new figures, which reflect a weaker job market in that period, have bolstered confidence that the Fed is poised to loosen monetary policy and issue potentially steeper rate cuts than previously thought.

Markets are eyeing a 39% chance the Fed could cut rates 50 basis points in September, up from less than 30% earlier this week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

“If you are in the rate cut in September camp, these data all but seal the deal on what [the] Fed needed to cut rates,” Jamie Cox, a managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said in a statement.

Investors were also soothed by the Fed’s latest meeting minutes, which showed that the majority of FOMC members believed it would “likely be appropriate” to begin cutting interest rates in September, so long as economic data continues “to come in about as expected,” the minutes said.

That’s considerably more dovish than the tone central bankers have struck all year, with Fed Chair Powell previously stating that the central bank needed more confidence that inflation was back on track before easing policy.

“Still, overall the FOMC appears comfortable enough — and concerned enough — that initiating the easing cycle will help ensure that the economic backdrop, particularly the labor market, won’t deteriorate at a marked pace,” Quincy Krosby, the chief global strategist at LPL Financial, added.

Investors are waiting for Powell to speak at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole retreat on Friday, where the central bank chief is expected to deliver more guidance on policy through the end of the year.

Here’s where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:

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Here’s what else is going on today:

In commodities, bonds, and crypto:

• Oil futures dropped. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 1.7% to $71.93 a barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 1.45% to $76.09.

• Gold was up slightly to $2,552 an ounce.

• The 10-year Treasury yield dropped two basis points to 3.795%.

• Bitcoin jumped 3.4% to $61.563.

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