JPMorgan says Bitcoin is gaining on gold in debasement trade as ETF flows diverge

Bitcoin is taking market share from gold as investors hedge against fiat currency debasement, JPMorgan analysts said in a research note this week.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded inflows for three consecutive months through May, while gold ETFs are still struggling to recover the outflows that followed the March Iran conflict, according to The Block.

As Cryptopolitan reported in March, the divergence began with Bitcoin gaining 11% during the early period of the Iran conflict, while gold fell about 5% and the S&P 500 dropped nearly 3%.

The May update extends that pattern. Gold’s failure to recover its February-March outflows is what’s making the structural shift visible.

Strategy’s buying pace is the demand engine

Institutional exposure to Bitcoin has expanded sharply through Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally.

JPMorgan estimated that if Strategy maintains its current accumulation pace, the company could purchase roughly $30 billion worth of Bitcoin in 2026, per The Block.

That would exceed the roughly $22 billion the company bought in each of 2024 and 2025.

Strategy has added 145,834 BTC year-to-date, worth roughly $11 billion, with much of the buying happening below its average cost basis of around $75,000.

Strategy added 145,834 BTC year-to-date worth roughly $11 billion, with April marking a re-acceleration in pace | Source: SaylorTracker

The company now holds 818,334 BTC worth over $65 billion. JPMorgan analysts wrote that Strategy “appears to have re-accelerated its bitcoin purchases in April, extending a 2026 pattern of increasingly opportunistic buying, responsive to both market conditions and financing availability.”

TD Cowen raised its price target on Strategy to $395 from $385 earlier this week.

ETF inflows confirm the institutional thesis

US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted five consecutive days of net inflows totaling nearly $1.7 billion through Wednesday.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted nearly $1.7 billion in inflows over five trading days through Wednesday | Source: Farside Investors

BlackRock’s IBIT led the latest trading session with $134.6 million in inflows. The ETF sector is now on pace for its sixth straight week of positive flows, the longest streak since July 2025.

Bitcoin traded near $80,120 during JPMorgan’s analysis period, up 26% over the past three months, and recovered from a roughly $62,000 low in February.

Goldman is staying with gold

Not every Wall Street bank agrees with JPMorgan’s read.

Goldman Sachs recently raised its year-end gold forecast to $5,400 per ounce, citing strong central bank demand and gold’s lower long-term volatility.

Bitcoin has experienced declines exceeding 50% at least four times since 2017, while gold’s largest historical drawdowns have approached the 45 to 50 percent range.

JPMorgan’s volatility ratio between Bitcoin and gold sits around 1.5, the lowest on record, and the bank said the figure could continue narrowing as institutional adoption deepens.

The bank-vs-bank split is the structural story under the two of the largest US institutions taking opposite positions on the same hedge question, with retail capital flowing through the ETF wrappers in real time.

The next test is whether Bitcoin ETF inflows hold through the second half of 2026 and whether gold flows stabilize as geopolitical tensions ease.

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