Bitcoin Has Stalled Just Short of the 200-Day MA

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has remained around $2.69 trillion, as the largest coins by market cap consolidate following their recent gains, while smaller altcoins have accelerated their growth. The top performers over the last 24 hours were Toncoin (+29%), NEAR (+10.7%) and Internet Computer (+9.6%). The worst performers were recent stars such as Zcash (-5%), Doge (-3.8%) and Bitcoin Cash (-2.9%).

Bitcoin rose to $82.8K on Wednesday, approaching but not breaking through the 200-day moving average (currently at $83.2K). From its local highs, the leading cryptocurrency retreated to $81.3K at the time of writing, pausing its upward momentum. This pause also coincided with the RSI touching the overbought territory (>70) on daily timeframes. It is worrying that the previous three touches of these levels (in August, October and January) were followed by sharp selloffs. It is quite logical that market participants are taking a breather to assess the situation and gather strength. Thus, the current pause is not a sign of buyer exhaustion.

News Background

The Bitcoin futures market is experiencing its longest streak of negative funding rates in the last 10 years: it has remained in negative territory for 67 consecutive days, according to K33 Research. This situation heightens the risk of a short squeeze.

XWIN Japan identifies the $93K level as a key medium-term target for Bitcoin, driven by the closing of the price gap on the CME. However, the movement will not necessarily be straightforward, and the market may initially move lower.

The options market does not confirm a full-fledged breakout, QCP Capital points out. Monthly implied volatility remains around 41%, and demand for put options persists: market participants are buying Bitcoin but continue to hedge their risks.

Strategy reported a net loss of $12.5 billion for the first quarter of 2026. The main reason for this was ‘paper’ losses from the revaluation of the Bitcoin reserve against the backdrop of a fall in BTC. Strategy founder Michael Saylor admitted that the company may sell some of its Bitcoin to pay dividends, even though he had previously denied the possibility.