Bitcoin Rebound Seen as Fragile Amid Middle East Risks, Rate Uncertainty

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Bitcoin’s rebound is losing momentum as geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainty limit further gains, according to an analysis.

Cointelegraph reported on June 12 that Nic Puckrin, founder of CoinBureau, said Bitcoin’s current rebound remains fragile. He attributed the pressure on the market to the fallout from the war in the Middle East and uncertainty over interest rates.

Even if the war were to end now, its effects could last throughout 2026, he said. Rate cuts could also be delayed until late in the third quarter or the fourth quarter.

For Bitcoin to climb to $90,000, geopolitical tensions would need to ease, oil prices would need to fall toward $80 a barrel, and stagflation concerns linked to weakening economic data would need to subside, Puckrin said.

In the short term, a weekly close above $71,000 is a key level to watch. Holding that threshold could leave room for further gains, while the area around $74,000 may act as resistance.

Bitcoin has risen about 5.8% since June 6 and moved above $73,000, but later fell back toward $70,000 after news that talks between the US and Iran had broken down.

Middle East tensions are also adding to inflation pressures. The US consumer price index recently rose 3.3% from a year earlier, underscoring persistent price pressures.

That backdrop has also exposed divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee over the timing of rate cuts. Markets are largely pricing in no change to the benchmark rate in the near term, while some analysts say another increase cannot be ruled out if inflation remains elevated.