Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) analyst Michaël van de Poppe says Bitcoin’s current setup still favors upside — but only if a clean break above $65,000 triggers the next strong run.
Why $65,000 Is The Line That Changes Everything
Van de Poppe on Thursday on X said nothing has changed on Bitcoin’s structure and the upside momentum remains intact despite the recent correction to $63,000.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded $264.4 million in net inflows over the past two weeks after a prolonged outflow stretch throughout May and June, according to Santiment.
Fidelity’s FBTC led the early July reversal with roughly $166 million, ARK Invest’s ARKB added $91.8 million, and IBIT stepped back in with $138.9 million on a $181.1 million inflow day.
Encouraging CPI data, softening Fed expectations, and crypto policy optimism brought sidelined buyers back into the market.
What The On-Chain Data Shows
Whales holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC sold over 9,500 BTC in recent days, while retail wallets below 0.01 BTC continued accumulating steadily.
Analysts attribute institutional hesitation to geopolitical uncertainty and the still-unresolved Clarity Act.
The 30-day MVRV sits just above zero, pointing to modest short-term risk. The one-year MVRV sits at negative 27.2%, meaning long-term holders remain underwater and the macro setup favors patient buyers over short-term traders.
Moreover, Bitcoin is also correlating more closely with gold than with the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) right now.
The S&P 500 has gained roughly 19% since late March while Bitcoin has lagged, and a return to Bitcoin’s historical correlation with equities could act as a catch-up catalyst if geopolitical tensions ease or the Clarity Act advances.
Where Does Bitcoin Stand Technically?
Bitcoin ran into Supertrend resistance at $65,727 twice this week and failed to close above it both times, with sellers stepping in exactly at that level.
Price now sits at $63,116, below the 20-day EMA at $63,262, turning prior support into active resistance.
The range carved out since June’s collapse stays intact: $58,000 floor, $65,727 Supertrend ceiling.
Until Bitcoin closes above $65,727 and the Supertrend flips green, this remains a range trade rather than a trend trade.
Key levels for Bitcoin:
- $64,964 — 50-day EMA, first resistance above
- $65,727 — Supertrend ceiling, the level bulls need to close above
- $62,000 — immediate support below current price
- $58,000 to $59,000 — demand zone floor of the current range
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