MicroStrategy Bitcoin Bets Skew ‘No’

The latest snapshot of active prediction markets on Polymarket — All Markets reveals a striking sentiment regarding MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy.

A market asking “MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?” has seen an overwhelming $68.6 million in 24-hour trading volume. The overwhelming majority of bets, 99.4%, predict ‘No’ sales by December 31, 2025, indicating strong confidence that the company will maintain its substantial Bitcoin holdings. Only 0.7% of the volume suggests a sale will occur.

This sentiment is reflected in the low potential return for a ‘Yes’ outcome, offering a 153.8x payout, compared to a mere 1.0x for ‘No’. The market’s description clarifies resolution hinges on information from MicroStrategy (MSTR) and on-chain data, with credible reporting as a fallback.

This focus on MicroStrategy Bitcoin highlights ongoing investor scrutiny of corporate crypto strategies. Meanwhile, other markets show significant activity in geopolitical events, such as the US Iran ceasefire, which has seen $2.2 million in 24-hour volume for a market predicting its continuation.

The broader Polymarket Volume Breakdown also shows substantial interest in the Federal Reserve’s June decision, with $1.3 million traded on whether rates will change.

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