Bitcoin has soared above the $66,000 mark thanks to the easing of U.S. and Iran conflict. However, the BTC rally could be in danger due to Warren Buffett’s massive $397 billion fiat reserve.
How Warren Buffett’s Cash Pile Could Affect Bitcoin
As per a report by BitMEX, the $397 billion position of Warren Buffett in cash and Treasury bills might have a downside effect on Bitcoin’s rally. The huge fiat stack is often viewed as an indicator of the lack of risk appetite across the global markets.
$397 billion. That’s the size of @WarrenBuffett cash pile. 14 consecutive quarters of selling.
At the 2026 Berkshire AGM, Buffett didn’t hold back: “We’ve never had people in a more gambling mood than now.”
The casino is winning. Here is what that means for crypto 🧵 pic.twitter.com/xqQN4LgIB5
— BitMEX (@BitMEX) June 15, 2026
After 14 straight quarters of net equity sales, Berkshire Hathaway has built up its cash to a record level. The report attributed the change to a tendency to be more cautious on risk assets as valuations are still elevated across markets.
BitMEX pointed out Warren Buffett’s views on the current market sentiment. During the Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting, he said “We’ve never had people in a more gambling mood than now.”
He went on to add that “the casino has gotten very attractive to people.” His comments had already weighed on the equity and crypto market sentiment earlier.
The report noted that, based on the market structure, Bitcoin is more sensitive to changes in the market mood than equities. The major scale difference it pointed to was the S&P 500 is valued at nearly $64 trillion and trades a volume of $200 billion every day. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is valued at around $1.2 trillion and has an average daily trade volume of $30 billion.
This difference, BitMEX explained, means that macro shocks impact Bitcoin in a more pronounced way. It added that a 10% decline in S&P 500 could signal a bigger downturn for Bitcoin. It’s because BTC is now becoming increasingly correlated with other assets and leveraged liquidations.
The BTC-S&P 500 Correlation Factor
The report also cited Bitcoin’s “equity correlation.” BitMEX concluded that the BTC–S&P 500 correlation did not consistently trend upward over 2026, but rather experienced many peaks and valleys. Correlations, however, tend to increase during market stress, which can lead to an increase in the spillover risk.
The Buffett Indicator, which measures total capitalization of the U.S. stock market against GDP, was another key indicator mentioned. In the past, Warren Buffett has called it “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”
In recent times, the ratio is currently at over 210%, which is cited as a sign of overvalued equities in past cycles, BitMEX noted. Per historical data, the market has mostly witnessed a downtrend if the indicator hit such levels.
The report pointed out that the same circumstances have come before the previous market stresses. For context, Berkshire’s cash balance before the 2008 financial crisis of about $70 billion and about $128 billion prior to the pandemic shock of 2020.
Today’s $397 billion reserve is much more than the previous figures. Hence, it could put the equity markets under pressure. This sentiment could trickle down to Bitcoin and the overall crypto market owing to the strong correlation.
However, Buffett, who has long been critical of Bitcoin and previously derisively labeled it as “rat poison squared,” hasn’t issued a direct statement about crypto and his current holdings.
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