XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) is up more than 3% today to $1.14, recording its fourth straight day of gains. The cryptocurrency has now climbed nearly 8% this week, marking its strongest run since the mid-June bounce.
The move has also brought XRP back to the most important line on its chart. Since the $3.65 peak last July, every rally has stopped at a falling trendline connecting the highs, and the price is testing that line again this week. So, can the XRP price finally break out this time? Let’s read the chart properly.
XRP has traded inside a falling wedge for a year, and after breaking above a smaller trendline from late May on July 3, the price is now testing the pattern’s main upper line.
XRP Has Spent a Year Coiling Inside a Falling Wedge
XRP peaked at $3.65 last July and has been falling ever since. Each bounce has stopped at a lower high than the last one, and each drop has stopped at a lower low. That gives the chart two falling lines—one across the highs and one under the lows.
And because the highs are falling faster than the lows, the two lines keep squeezing toward each other. Chartists call that narrowing shape a falling wedge pattern, and XRP has bounced off both lines every time it touched them for a year. This is what makes the pattern worth taking seriously.
Falling wedges are supposed to go quiet as they tighten, and XRP’s has done exactly that. The busiest trading days of the past year all came while the price was crashing, as holders rushed to sell at once. At the current lows, that rush is gone—trading has been light for weeks. Anyone who wanted out has had a year of chances to sell, so the quiet suggests most of the selling is already done.
The XRP price has now reached the tip of that wedge, and it has already cleared the first hurdle. The drop from May’s high had formed its own smaller ceiling inside the wedge—a steeper trendline that turned back every bounce for over a month. Then, on July 3, XRP broke above that line and made its first higher high since late May.
The year-long line is now the bigger test as it’s the wedge’s actual ceiling, and if XRP gets through it, the pattern itself says how far the price could go next.
Where the $1.50 XRP Price Target Comes From
When a wedge breaks, technical analysts measure how tall the pattern is—the distance between its two lines—and add that distance to the spot where the price breaks out. Doing the analysis on XRP’s wedge, the first target comes out at $1.50, which is roughly 32% above today’s price. And if the rally turns out stronger than that, analysts have a second set of targets, which points to the price levels at $1.80 to $2.10—the extension zones.
The pattern also has decades of data behind it. Thomas Bulkowski, whose research most analysts treat as the standard, has measured how often falling wedges actually deliver. He found that they break upward about 68% of the time, and that the average rise after a confirmed upward break runs near 38%. Next to those numbers, a 30% move in XRP to $1.50 would be a fairly ordinary outcome, not a moonshot.
However, the same research shows about a quarter of those upward breaks don’t hold as the price pokes above the pattern, then falls right back inside. The falling wedge also ranks below average for reliability, as plenty of other bullish patterns deliver more often.
So, the $1.50 target comes from accurate measurement rather than guesswork, but it only counts once the breakout is confirmed. Traders who jump in before that confirmation are the ones who get trapped, as XRP hasn’t checked all the boxes yet.
XRP Has the Volume for a Breakout but Not the Momentum Yet
In late June, around $400 million worth of XRP changed hands each day. The current bounce has pushed that past $1.7 billion, which is more than four times that pace, and the first box on the breakout checklist is now ticked. The breakout still needs buyers behind it, as a rising price with barely anyone buying is usually a fake-out that reverses quickly.
XRP’s daily RSI—a gauge that shows when a price has fallen too far or risen too fast—still reads between 32 and 37. That is near oversold levels, which means the token is still recovering from heavy selling rather than building new strength. So momentum, which is the second thing a breakout needs, hasn’t turned yet.
However, there is an early hint that the momentum could be close. Through late June, the XRP price kept making lower lows, but the RSI made higher lows, meaning the price was falling while the selling force behind it weakened. Traders call that mismatch a “bullish divergence,” and it often appears just before momentum turns. Not everyone buys it, and the one signal all sides agree on would be the daily RSI climbing above 50—the halfway line that separates falling momentum from rising, and that hasn’t happened yet.
Moreover, XRP tracks Bitcoin closely. When Bitcoin moves higher, the rest of the market usually follows, and BTC has been moving sideways between $60,000 and $62,500. The sideways drift isn’t hurting XRP, but it isn’t helping much either. Bitcoin breaking above the $63,000 to $65,000 area would make XRP’s breakout far more likely, while fresh Bitcoin weakness would drag XRP back down with it.
On top of that, a crowd is waiting right above the trendline XRP is trying to break—roughly 50 million XRP were last bought between $1.18 and $1.22. Those holders are losing money right now, and many will sell the moment the price gets back to what they paid, so any breakout has to push through all that selling first. That crowd has won twice already, as the sellers turned XRP back at this same line in January and again in May—and the May rejection started June’s slide.
XRP Price Prediction After the Trendline Test
XRP trades at $1.14, which is just under the $1.18 to $1.20 zone where the falling trendline and that wall of sellers meet. The next few daily closes should decide which way the wedge breaks.
Bullish Prediction: XRP Could Rally to $1.50
For the rally to start, the XRP price needs a daily close above the $1.18 to $1.20 range, with volume rising as it happens. A wick through the zone, meaning a quick poke above it that falls back before the day ends, doesn’t count. Only a daily close does.
The strongest sign would come after the break. If the XRP price falls back to the zone it just broke and then holds above it, that would prove the old ceiling now works as a floor, because the sellers who guarded it are gone. From there, $1.50 would become the target, and if Bitcoin clears and holds above $65,000 at the same time, the $1.80 to $2.10 extension zone could come into play.
Base Prediction: XRP Could Keep Coiling Between $1.06 and $1.20
If sellers reject the XRP price at the $1.18 to $1.20 zone again, the next question is whether $1.06 holds. That is the level where some 830 million XRP were last bought, and buyers usually step in again at the price they paid before, which makes $1.06 the strongest floor nearby.
If that floor holds, the XRP price would likely keep coiling between those two levels. But the wedge has almost no room left at its tip, so the wait shouldn’t stretch much further. July has also historically been one of XRP’s kinder months, which adds a little weight to the break going up rather than down.
Bearish Prediction: XRP Could Drop Toward $0.85
If the XRP price sees a daily close below $1.02, the wedge floor would break and the pattern would end outright. A structure that took a year to build would be gone in a day.
XRP has barely traded below that level, which means there are few buyer walls to slow a fall. The XRP price would likely test $1.00 first, then the $0.85 to $0.90 support zone. If it comes to that, the cause would probably be a Bitcoin breakdown dragging the whole market lower rather than anything on XRP’s own chart.
Will XRP Go on a 30% Rally?
XRP has its best shot at a breakout all year. The wedge has run out of room, trading volume is four times higher than it was in late June, and the coin is more oversold than it was when the January and May attempts failed. Even so, this same trendline has rejected every rally for a year, so the setup only counts once XRP actually closes above it.
From here, three things would confirm the move. XRP closing above the $1.18 to $1.20 price range on the daily chart, the RSI climbing back above 50, and Bitcoin breaking past $65,000. The first one matters most, and until that close happens the 30% rally will have to wait.
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