GBP/JPY fell sharply to 212.90 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Rebound from 210.43 could have completed and risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 215.59 resistance holds. On the downside, below 212.90 will bring deeper fall to 211.23 support first. However, firm break of 215.59 will resume the rebound from 210.43 to retest 216.58 high instead.
In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 206.53) will argue that it’s already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.
In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 186.82) holds.
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