GBP/USD exchange rate to strengthen following US data? » Future Currency Forecast

GBP/USD exchange rate firms ahead of durable goods orders print

The pound US dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is drifting higher this morning as markets await the latest durable goods orders data from the US.

At the time of writing the GBP/USD exchange rate is trading at around $1.2658, up roughly 0.2% from this morning’s opening rate.

US dollar (USD) to climb following durable goods orders?

The US dollar (USD) has drifted lower against the majority of its peers this morning ahead of the latest durable goods orders data, expected later today.

The data is forecast to report a rebound in order growth in February, rising from -6.1% up to a 1%. Should the data match expectations, this may boost USD exchange rates this afternoon.

However, the US dollar could face fresh resistance later in the week as data is expected to show that US jobless claims are predicted to have increased during the week ending March 23.

However, the US dollar could be cushioned on Thursday as the US is also set to publish its finalised GDP figures for the last quarter of 2023. If this confirms an expansion in the US economy, the ‘Greenbank’ could strengthen.

Moving into Friday, the latest core PCE price index data is forecast to hold steady at 2.8%. As the index stands as the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge on inflation, any difference in the results could infuse volatility in USD exchange rate at the end of the week.

Pound (GBP) to fall following UK GDP?

The pound (GBP) traded mostly sideways on Tuesday as a lack of macroeconomic data releases left Sterling trading without a clear trajectory.

As data releases are few and far between this week, GBP investor attention will likely turn to the UK’s finalised GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2023.

Scheduled for release on Thursday, the finalised figures are expected to confirm that the UK economy fell into a recession in the second half of last year, which may weigh on GBP exchange rates towards the latter stages of the week.

Elsewhere, Sterling is likely to trade in line with risk dynamics. Could persistent risk-on trading conditions help to bolster the pound?

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