GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.3158 extended higher last week but failed to break through 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3158 at 1.3596 decisively. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained break of 1.359 will pave the way to retest 1.3867 high. However, firm break of 1.3379 will bring deeper fall back to 1.3158 low instead.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is back in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).
In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance zone holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.0351 are seen as a corrective pattern to down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.
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