Several years ago, I suggested gold’s mauling of the world’s fiat monies would pause around April of 2026. That pause began in February. Many more beatings on fiat by the world’s currency queen lie ahead, but a lull in the action is the current theme and…
It’s healthy.
The long-term chart of failed fiat versus gold. It’s critical for gold bugs to stay focused on the big picture, and to understand that gold is not a “hottie stock”.
It’s the world’s most awesome currency, so the focus of investors needs to be on patiently getting more of it.
A look at the daily gold chart. On this daily chart, there are some “green shoots”, like the double bottom for Stochastics (14,7,7 series)…
But leveraged futures traders are concerned that the Hormuz mayhem won’t end anytime soon, causing oil prices, and thus rates, to rise.
Those traders drive a lot of the short-term price action for gold. 
The US government hoped to end the Ukraine war quickly. That hasn’t happened and the Russian central bank has begun resorting to gold sales to fund the insanity.
Note the “wet noodle” action of the key 14,5,5 series Stochastics oscillator.
It fits with Russian (and Turkey and others?) central bank selling.
The Ukraine war caused some mayhem in markets, and the Iran war may cause more.
Oil shortages are occurring in Asia and are set to begin (within weeks) in Europe. The US government has been “exporting” its SPR oil to soften the blows, but if the Hormuz madness continues, it may soon need that oil domestically.
In a nutshell, gold futures traders believe the Iran war will cause sustained inflation and higher rates… but not as high as in the 1970s.
That means they believe higher rates are negative for gold.
Gold bug morale? While the BPGDM sentiment index is technical, it does tend to indicate actual gold investor morale quite well.
Periods where morale is subdued coincide with the BPGDM trading under 50, which is where it is now. This is also where the biggest buy opportunities lie.
In a nutshell: while a bit more “time in the hopper” is likely required before gold, silver, and mining stocks launch their next big fiat price charge, investors who buy now likely get rewarded over time.
The overvalued yet incredibly bullish US stock market chart. The metals often surge with the stock market… but there’s usually a time lag before they do.
The pause for gold coincides with the pause on this magnificent CDNX weekly chart and…
It adds “final touches” of symmetry to the magnificent inverse H&S launchpad pattern.
The GDX daily chart. Key oscillators (RSI, Stochastics, and MACD are not) confirming the latest low in the price.
The divergence is positive and coincides with the powerful upside breakout in the stock market. The lull could be the calm before the rally time storm!
The big questions gold bugs need to ask themselves are these: If the government narrators don’t talk about the debt, has the debt gone away? No. If gold stocks (and silver) have lagged the stock market in the past and then surged mightily, can they reasonably be expected to do so again? Yes. Is gold the most awesome currency on the planet? Yes! In a nutshell, there are only two things for gold bugs to do today: be patient… and smile!
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