The USD/JPY pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s goodish rebound from sub-159.00 levels, or a one-week low, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 159.50 area, nearly unchanged for the day, and remain confined within a familiar range held over the past month or so.
Despite the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) hawkish pause on Tuesday, the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its struggle to attract any meaningful buyers amid economic concerns stemming from the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, benefits from its reserve currency status on the back of persistent geopolitical uncertainties and turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.
Hopes for a revival of US-Iran peace talks receded after US President Donald Trump canceled his special envoy’s planned visit to Pakistan. Moreover, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked due to Iran’s restrictions on movements and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Given that Japan depends on energy imports from the Middle East, the disruption fuels worries that the economy will come under strain in the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, media reports suggest that Trump was dissatisfied with Iran’s new proposal on resolving the war and reopening the strategic waterway, but would set aside discussion of Iran’s nuclear program. This remains supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices, reviving inflationary concerns and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. The outlook, in turn, is seen as another factor underpinning the USD and offering some support to the USD/JPY pair.
The USD bulls, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting. Investors will look for fresh cues about the Fed’s future policy outlook, which will drive the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the USD/JPY pair. That said, prospects for an imminent BoJ rate hike, along with speculations that authorities will step in to stem further JPY weakness, should keep spot prices capped below the 160.00 psychological mark.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Leave a comment