Indonesia Maps USD 857B Downstream Plan for 28 Commodities

Gotrade News – Indonesia’s Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia unveiled a downstream-processing roadmap covering 28 commodities on Tuesday (5/5). The plan calls for USD 857 billion in investment through 2040.

The roadmap concentrates 90% of capital in mineral, coal, and oil-gas sectors. Bahlil noted these segments fall directly under his ministry’s authority.

Key Takeaways:

• Indonesia’s downstream roadmap targets USD 857 billion across 28 commodities through 2040.
• Mining, coal, and oil-gas account for 90% of total investment requirements.
• Nickel exports rose from USD 3.3 billion (2017-2018) to USD 34 billion (2023-2024).

Bahlil cited Indonesia’s nickel program as proof the strategy works. Processed nickel exports surged from USD 3.3 billion in 2017-2018 to USD 34 billion in 2023-2024.

The export jump followed the 2020 ban on raw ore shipments abroad. Domestic smelter investment then drove value-added growth in processed product output.

The government will rely on the new Danantara financing vehicle to execute the roadmap. Bahlil said domestic banks were previously hesitant to fund downstream projects given the risk profile.

A separate masification push for compressed natural gas (CNG) sits alongside the commodities plan. Bahlil proposed a 3-kilogram CNG canister format to reach household consumers.

Energy economist Muhammad Ishak Razak from Core warned the government to learn from the failed 2007 BBG conversion program. That program stalled because long-term infrastructure investment never materialized.

CNG already runs in TransJakarta buses, taxis, bajaj vehicles, industrial plants, and hotels. Economically, CNG remains cheaper than LPG as a household fuel alternative.

Bahlil framed downstream processing as a sovereignty assertion over national natural resources. He also stressed environmental justice and surrounding-community welfare as core principles.

Global investors seeking nickel supply-chain exposure may consider Vale (VALE) or Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). Sustained nickel demand is anchored by EV battery production at Tesla (TSLA).

Bahlil said Danantara has redrawn the financing map for downstream projects. The new mechanism aims to accelerate USD 857 billion in investment over the next 15 years.

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