The Commodities Feed: Oil slips as more crude flows out of Persian Gulf | articles

Oil prices came under pressure yesterday, with ICE Brent settling 1.9% lower on the day, taking it back below $90/bbl. This weakness comes despite little improvement in tensions between the US and Iran.

There are signs of an increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Ship tracking data shows that tanker crossings have increased slightly. Though still in single digits, there are also reports that the shuttling of oil across the strait has resumed. This will not be detected by tracking data, given that transponders will be turned off. However, the US energy secretary has said that around 13m b/d of oil is coming out of the Persian Gulf, with roughly half coming through the strait. The other half is using pipelines to bypass the strait. That would mean flows from the region are around 65% of pre-war levels.

The US also appears to have ruled out further releases from its strategic petroleum reserves (SPR), once the ongoing release of 172m barrels is complete. The SPR currently stands at a little under 308m barrels, and there’s growing concern over how much further this reserve could be tapped, given operational minimum levels. While the US Department of Energy has said the operational minimum is 70m barrels, others in the industry estimate this level to be higher, potentially in the region of 180–200 m barrels. This suggests that the buffer the SPR offers is significantly less than what the headline number states.

Middle distillate markets are set to remain tight, with Russia extending its ban on diesel exports until 1 September. Russia is the second-largest exporter of diesel, shipping more than 700k b/d in 2025. However, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries have led to significant disruptions to the domestic fuel market, prompting steps by the government to ensure domestic supply. The ICE gasoil crack remains near record highs, trading above $70/bbl.

The tightening in the market is reflected in inventory data. The latest data from Insights Global shows that gasoil inventories in the ARA region fell by 221kt WoW, to 1.42mt, and are close to the lows seen in 2022.

The increased tension in the Red Sea will also be concerning for European middle distillate markets, potentially leading to disruptions in middle distillate flows from Asia and the Middle East and requiring vessels to take the longer voyage around the Cape of Good Hope.