Investors seeking both safety and growth appear to have reached an unexpected consensus in 2025, that of bitcoin failing to capture either trade.
This sentiment is evident in a year-to-date comparison of major, widely tracked assets, including stocks, gold, the 10-year Treasury note, bitcoin, industrial metals such as copper, and the dollar index.
Gold, a traditional safe haven and inflation hedge, has rallied by 70% to a record high above $4,450 per ounce, outpacing every other major asset by a wide margin. Copper, widely considered a barometer of global economic health, is the second-best performer with 35% gains, according to TradingView data.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 17% and 21%, respectively, while the 10-year Treasury note has lost 9%, and bitcoin is down 6%. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. dollar’s exchange rate against a basket of fiat currencies, has dropped nearly 10%.
The fact that polar opposites – gold, the ultimate fear hedge, and copper, an essential industrial anchor with AI links – are the top two performers while BTC, the supposed digital gold and high-end tech, is down, suggests a shift in investor preference to tangible assets in the face of macro and political concerns and the AI boom.
Early this year, haven demand, driven by macro and political issues and fiat debasement fears, coupled with the AI boom and a positively evolving regulatory outlook under the Trump presidency, were widely cited as ultra-bullish tailwinds for BTC. But that has not materialized.
This is mainly due to the crypto community espousing BTC as digital gold rather than emerging tech, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.
“The emerging narrative of Bitcoin as ‘digital gold’ has failed to fully convince Wall Street investors. Many crypto narratives marketed to institutional investors now resemble passive allocation stories, staking yield or long-term value preservation, rather than compelling use-case–driven growth themes,” Thielen told CoinDesk.
“However, there is little evidence that a new cohort of investors is meaningfully attracted to passive crypto exposures, limiting fresh capital inflows,” he added.
Investors have snapped up gold as a haven asset amid rising fiscal concerns across the advanced world, tariff-led political tensions, fears of fiat debasement, and a potential threat to the Fed’s independence.
At the same time, investors looked past BTC as the high-end tech even as the AI boom delivered a massive windfall to a diverse set of assets, ranging from obvious tech stocks to the record-breaking rally in base metals like copper.
The red metal has been driven higher by the overlapping trend of electrification, digital infrastructure, and geopolitical tension alongside slower supply growth, as Geopolitical Monitor recently noted.
BTC lacks sovereign bid
Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, attributed BTC’s dour performance to the absence of a sovereign bid for the cryptocurrency.
“Gold is the ‘hard asset’ for global central banks and sovereign players. As sovereigns hedge their assets away from USD FX, Gold has been the beneficiary,” Magadini told CoinDesk. “Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a more “portable” asset for individuals to hedge their FX-debasement risk.”
He explained that BTC, being more speculative, has a demand base of higher-risk-tolerance investors, such as retail investors, hedge funds, and investment firms, rather than established sovereign entities.
“At least that’s the case today. Hence the large performance divergence in 2025,” he said, adding the next leg higher in BTC needs sovereign adoption as ETF adoption, positive regulatory outlook and digital asset treasury narratives have been fully priced in.
Gold’s surge since 2023 has been partly driven by increased central bank buying, especially in Asian countries. According to World Gold Council, global central banks have purchased 254 tons of gold from January to October.
Building energy
While bears may see BTC’s inability to catch a haven and AI bid as a sign of inherent weakness, that’s not necessarily the case, according to Lewis Harland, portfolio manager at Re7 Capital, who said the cryptocurrency is building energy for a big rally.
“Gold’s breakout is not a bearish signal for Bitcoin. Gold has been leading BTC by roughly 26 weeks, and its consolidation last summer matches Bitcoin’s pause today. The metal’s renewed strength reflects a market increasingly pricing in further currency debasement and fiscal strain into 2026 – a backdrop that has consistently supported both assets, with Bitcoin historically responding with greater torque,” Harland said.
He added that BTC’s consolidation is therefore building energy rather than signaling weakness.
“The longer BTC sits tight, the more explosive the eventual move tends to be—positioning it to react strongly as the debasement trade accelerates,” Harland quipped.
Key takeaways for the global economy
Gold and copper are outperforming other assets, but gold’s stronger rally over copper signals markets betting on two contradictory futures simultaneously: AI-driven growth (copper) versus fears of systemic failure from unsustainable fiscal debt (gold).
More importantly, gold’s outperformance shows anxiety about the global financial system outweighing AI-led boom.
While both gold and copper have hit record highs this year, the copper-to-gold ratio, a barometer for global economic health and risk sentiment, has dropped nearly 20% to lowest in over two decades, according to data source TradingView. It’s a tell tale sign of global economy in a “late-cycle” environment or “fragile expansion” driven by AI but weighed down by fiscal, trade and geopolitical concerns.
The most important takeaway is the flight to tangibility. When gold, copper hit record highs and the dollar index, Treasury notes and stocks underperform, it means the market no longer trusts “promises of paper (fiat) currencies” or assets that are pure play on fiat liquidity.
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