Cardano is in the second bear market phase within a multi-year channel, and history shows where it could bottom out and begin to recover.
An analysis from TradingShot highlighted this trend in an April 20 commentary. The report showed that Cardano ($ADA) has been stuck within this range since the 2021 all-time high of $3.10, with prices currently in a corrective phase.
Key Points
- Cardano has remained in a multi-year range since the 2021 all-time high of $3.10 amid a corrective phase.
- $ADA has corrected 75.5% from the bearish channel’s peak price of $1.02 to its current market price of $0.249.
- Analysis compared the current price point to that of June 2022, when $ADA was in the first bearish channel, as similar bullish divergence emerges.
- $ADA could drop lower to at least $0.10 by the end of the year if the 2022 bear cycle pattern repeats.
- This level represents an ideal long-term buy zone for the next bullish phase.
Second Cardano Bearish Leg
The 5-year channel has had periods of price consolidation and expansion. For context, after the 2021 peak, $ADA entered a bearish phase within a tighter descending wedge, falling 92.3% from the high to $0.239 in December 2022.
Afterward, its price started to recover. From the low, it jumped 452% to reach this cycle’s high of $1.32 in December 2024. The price aligned with the channel’s upper resistance, where $ADA’s bullish momentum faded.
In August 2025, the coin attempted the resistance trendline again but stalled at $1.02. Bears have taken over the market since then, with $ADA entering another bearish channel. This is its second within the multi-year descending wedge.
$ADA’s Current State
Meanwhile, Cardano has corrected 75.5% from the current bearish channel’s highest price of $1.02 to its current market price of $0.249. The analyst compared the current price point to that of June 2022, when $ADA was in the first bearish channel.
During that time, there was a bullish divergence in the weekly timeframe, with prices making lower lows while the RSI made higher lows. This divergence took time to materialize, but when it did, the coin broke out of the bearish channel and targeted higher prices. The analyst has spotted the same bullish divergence, suggesting that $ADA could replicate the price action seen in 2022 if history repeats.
Ideal Long-Term Buy Zone
TradingShot also drew on historical data to project when Cardano was likely to bottom out. According to the commentary, $ADA could drop lower to at least $0.10 by the end of the year if the 2022 bear cycle pattern repeats and the coin drops 92.3% within the channel. This would mark another 59.8% drop from the current market price.
Meanwhile, the analyst described this target as an ideal long-term buy zone for the next bullish phase. This suggests that the area would mark the start of another uptrend season for Cardano, as it did in the previous one.
The shared chart shows that the first target would be a rebound from the buy zone to $0.245. A full repeat of the previous pattern would see $ADA retest the channel’s upper resistance around $0.70. Interestingly, a breakout from this channel in the next bull market would be massive for Cardano.
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