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Shares of Zillow (Z) sank as much as 14% Friday alongside other real estate names after the National Association of Realtors reached a legal settlement that paves the way for home buyers and sellers to pay lower commissions.
The NAR reached a nationwide settlement of claims that the industry conspired to boost agents’ commissions, the organization said on Friday. If the settlement gets approval by a federal court, it will usher changes to the way consumers buy and sell homes.
Real estate names slid on the heels of the NAR’s groundbreaking settlement. Anywhere Real Estate (HOUS), Compass (COMP), and Redfin (RDFN) declined as much as 15%, 11%, and 5%, respectively.
The NAR said it will pay $418 million over the next four years to end litigation. The organization still denies the wrongdoing regarding the compensation rule at the center of the litigation.
As part of the settlement, the NAR’s Multiple Listing Service (MLS), a database where 88% of sellers listed their homes last year, will no longer require brokers and agents who use the MLS to share in a 6% commission on the sale of a property.
“It has always been our goal to preserve consumer choice and protect our members to the greatest extent possible,” Nykia Wright, interim CEO, said in a statement.
At least one Wall Street analyst think this new will lead to “commissions falling 25% to 50%.”
In a note to clients on Friday, Jaret Seiberg, housing policy analyst for TD Cowen Washington Research Group, wrote that in addition to this drop in commissions, this ruling “should benefit online and discount real estate brokerages. They should be able to access the Multiple Listing Service without having to meet the commission requirements that previously were in place.”
Seiberg added: “That means they can offer lower commission rates in order to attract more business. In addition, the settlement bans the inclusion of buyer agent compensation in the listing.”
In Seiberg’s view, existing homeowners — who will now pay out a smaller fee upon the sale of their home — are set to benefit most, while first-time and less-wealthy buyers may see negative impacts, as smaller commissions and no pre-arranged fee structure, could hamper agent motivation to work with these clients.
The settlement also heightens the financial and administrative woes the NAR has been facing in recent months. NAR CEO Bob Goldberg resigned last year just days after the $1.8 billion verdict against the organization over commissions. Goldberg’s replacement, Tracy Kasper, later resigned in January after a blackmail threat regarding a past personal matter.
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