Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and current CIO of the Maelstrom fund, is doubling down on his bullish Bitcoin thesis. He expects the largest cryptocurrency to “explode” past $90,000 on its way to $126,000, a target he has described as a “foregone conclusion.”
Bitcoin is currently trading in a range between roughly $80,793 and $89,368. Hayes sees this consolidation as a launchpad, not a ceiling.
The macro case for six figures
Hayes’ thesis rests on a familiar but powerful engine: money printing. He points to what he describes as a $9 trillion expansion in the US money supply as the primary catalyst for the next leg up in Bitcoin’s price.
Beyond traditional monetary expansion, Hayes cites two additional forces he believes will drive liquidity into risk assets. The first is massive capital spending tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure. The second is what he frames as wartime financing dynamics, specifically referencing potential post-US-Iran conflict scenarios. He anticipates these forces converging to trigger a decisive bullish phase, which he has pinpointed as beginning around February 28, 2026.
Beyond $126K: the longer-term roadmap
The $126,000 target is just the appetizer in Hayes’ forecast. He has laid out a longer-term view that sees Bitcoin reaching $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of 2026, driven by continued Federal Reserve monetary expansion and the structural demand created by AI-related investment.
Hayes has floated a long-term Bitcoin price potential of $1 million, contingent on sustained and aggressive US money printing. He doesn’t frame this as an inevitable certainty but rather as a conditional outcome tied to specific policy decisions.
Before the next surge, Hayes acknowledges there could be a pullback. He has flagged the $80,000 to $90,000 range as a potential dip zone, driven by profit-taking and lingering uncertainties around Fed policy.
How Maelstrom is positioning
Hayes isn’t just talking. His fund, Maelstrom, is positioned aggressively for the scenario he’s describing. Rather than simply loading up on Bitcoin, the fund has taken a high-risk approach by concentrating heavily in altcoins.
The specific positions Hayes has highlighted include HYPE, ZE, and NEAR. This is notable because altcoin bets during a Bitcoin-led bull market are essentially leveraged plays on the broader thesis. When Bitcoin rallies, altcoins historically outperform on the way up, but they also get crushed harder on the way down.
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